Freezing Rain Advisory 9, NWS Anchorage, AK

839 
WWAK42 PAFC 111352
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
452 AM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012

...A WINTRY MIX WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

A WEATHER FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL INITIALLY BRING
LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING. AS WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE
AREA...SNOW WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN BRISTOL
BAY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA COASTS BY MIDDAY...THEN SPREAD NORTH THIS
EVENING. THE FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM BETHEL
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

AKZ155-120300-
/X.EXT.PAFC.ZR.Y.0009.121211T2100Z-121212T1500Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
452 AM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM
AKST WEDNESDAY FROM BETHEL SOUTH...

* ICE ACCUMULATION...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF
  BETHEL BY MIDDAY...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...ICE WILL ACCUMULATE ON SURFACES AND CREATE VERY 
  SLIPPERY CONDITIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

AKZ161-120300-
/X.CON.PAFC.ZR.Y.0009.121211T2100Z-121212T1500Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
452 AM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
6 AM AKST WEDNESDAY...

* ICE ACCUMULATION...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WEST OF KING SALMON BY
  MIDDAY AND MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...ICE WILL ACCUMULATE ON SURFACES AND CREATE VERY 
  SLIPPERY CONDITIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

062 
WWAK42 PAFC 120102
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
402 PM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012

...A WINTRY MIX WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT...

A WEATHER FRONT MOVING INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A VARIETY
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT. RAIN WILL FALL
ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COAST AND NORTH OF KIPNUK. FREEZING RAIN WILL
SPREAD TO THE NUSHAGAK HILLS AND NORTH OF BETHEL. LIGHT SNOW WILL
FALL OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NUSHAGAK AND SHOTGUN
HILLS...AND AS FAR NORTH AS HOOPER BAY...WHERE STRONG EAST WINDS
WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS.


AKZ155-121415-
/X.CON.PAFC.ZR.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-121212T1500Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
402 PM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* ICE ACCUMULATION...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH OF BETHEL DURING THE
  EVENING AND PERSIST END EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ICE WILL ACCUMULATE ON SURFACES AND CREATE VERY 
  SLIPPERY CONDITIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

AKZ161-121415-
/X.CON.PAFC.ZR.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-121212T1500Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
402 PM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* ICE ACCUMULATION...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST WILL
  SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS
  TEMPERATURES RISE. FREEZING RAIN WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ICE WILL ACCUMULATE ON SURFACES AND CREATE VERY 
  SLIPPERY CONDITIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

731 
WWAK42 PAFC 120729
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1029 PM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012


AKZ155-161-120830-
/X.CAN.PAFC.ZR.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-121212T1500Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND...
KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...PILOT POINT
1029 PM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO FREEZING OR ABOVE ACROSS BRISTOL BAY
AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ENDING FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE WITH
A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION. A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING WITH
A SECONDARY SMALLER SHORT-WAVE STILL OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THERE
IS LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION. AS THESE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN THERE IS ENOUGH
LIFT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AND
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ARE TRACKING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN BERING/ALASKA PENINSULA OUT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE GULF LOW ARE LEADING
TO STRONG GAP WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. OUT WEST A STRONG
LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS PUSHING A STORM
FORCE FRONT ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS TODAY AND ADVECTING MUCH WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF
SYSTEMS OUT WEST...PARTICULARLY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING. ECMWF NOW SEEMS TO BE THE ODD SOLUTION
OUT WITH A MUCH WEAKER TRIPLE POINT LOW. GFS/NAM/UKMET/GEMGLB ALL
AGREE ON A STRONGER LOW BUT DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION. THIS IN TURN
IMPACTS THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TO
MAINLAND ALASKA. THERE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES AS WARM AIR
ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT...SO THE POSITION WILL BE KEY TO FIGURING
THAT OUT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND COMBINE WITH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY
ALONG WEST FACING MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL END BY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM ESPECIALLY NEAR
COOK INLET. MEANWHILE...THE EAST WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN THE LOW MOVING TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGE BUILDING
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GAP WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING TO
GAPS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT.

THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES QUICKLY FROM THE BERING SEA.  EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WARMER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
PRIMARILY RAIN ALONG THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY
MAKE IT NORTHWARD TO CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
AS FAR NORTH AS ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT VALLEY. THE ONE THING WORKING
TOWARD A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER IS THAT
SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION FAVORS MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE KENAI/CHUGACH/TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS. FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO REMAIN ALL SNOW THERE COULD BE
SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS. THE DETAILS OF PRECIP TYPE WILL HAVE
TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
WEAK LIFT FROM THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FIRMLY OVERHEAD BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY HEAD EAST ON
TUESDAY AS THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTS ARRIVES FROM THE BERING. THE
FIRST FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT ARRIVES SO EXPECT PRECIP TO
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INITIALLY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW BUT MAY WARM ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN ALONG
THE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH HEAVIER PRECIP WITH THE SECOND
FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO WARM EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN FROM THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TO BRISTOL BAY. PLAN
TO ISSUE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR A FAIRLY LONG DURATION TO
HANDLE BOTH FRONTS...ALTHOUGH ANY SINGLE LOCATION WON'T SEE A VERY
LONG PERIOD OF FREEZING SPRAY. COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE BACK
IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A BERING LOW TRACKS TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA WHICH WILL CHANGE PRECIP BACK TO ALL SNOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A SERIES OF STRONG LOWS WILL MOVE INTO OR
DEVELOP OVER THE BERING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN. THE LOWS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE
LOW WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL TRACK TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING BACK IN BEHIND IT. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS
ADDITIONAL LOWS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT
AT THIS POINT IN TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
CURRENT SYSTEMS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT A BIT ALLOWING SYSTEMS TO MOVE OUT OF SIBERIA INSTEAD OF
FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. THEREFORE THE AIR MASS OVER THE ALASKA
REGION WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY SNOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...130 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 172
                        175 176 179 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

AKZ101-111-111400-

...A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE
ANCHORAGE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND THEN INTO THE ALASKA MAINLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
ONE SUCH POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN A LOT OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR WEDNESDAY.
BLOWING SNOW AND PERHAPS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN
ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS WINDS INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT PRECLUDES ISSUING AN
ADVISORY...WATCH...OR WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY
LIES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD
POSSIBLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH WOULD
DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...OR EVEN RAIN FOR PARTS OF
ANCHORAGE.

THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE ANCHORAGE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ARE URGED TO STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF ANY
ADVISORIES...WATCHES...AND/OR WARNINGS WITH THIS EVENT.

CASSELL