Small Craft Advisory 896, NWS Anchorage, AK

773 
FZAK52 PAFC 101239
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-110300-
400 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 997 MB LOW WILL WEAKEN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY. A 978 MB LOW 
550 NM SOUTHWEST OF ATTU WILL TRACK TO 200 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU AT
972 MB MON NIGHT AND TO 350 NM NORTH OF ATTU TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-110300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-110300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-110300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT E OF 160W. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-110300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING S 30 KT W OF PORT MOLLER
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-110300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-110300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO S WIND 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-110300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-110300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT PACIFIC SIDE...12 FT BERING SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT PACIFIC SIDE...17 FT BERING SIDE.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-110300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 14
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT
PACIFIC SIDE...14 FT BERING SIDE. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-110300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18
FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-110300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE
30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 30 KT
BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-110300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1105 AM AKST SUN DEC 9 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ASIA
ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO ALASKA. EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVES ARE OF RELATIVELY
LOW AMPLITUDE WITH A NEAR ZONAL JET ALONG THE BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE
PRODUCING GENERALLY FAST AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW. A WEAKENING LOW OVER
THE EASTERN BERING IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
COAST. THERE ARE A PLETHORA OF EMBEDDED WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION PRODUCING AREAS OF SNOW OR RAIN FROM THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. A
SHORT-WAVE THROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC IS BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF THANKS TO A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE EAST PACIFIC. A LOOK UPSTREAM SHOWS A SERIES OF LOWS MOVING OUT
OF ASIA INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING
SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL UPPER WAVES...BUT MODELS TEND
NOT TO HANDLE THESE PERFECTLY ANYWAY. THUS...WILL TOUGH TO NAIL
DOWN EXACT TIMING OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS THESE
MOVE THROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TRACK OF PACIFIC
SHORT-WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AS IT CROSSES THE GULF MONDAY.
WILL STICK WITH THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS SHOWN THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. MODEL SPREAD IS EVEN LARGER WITH EVOLUTION OF SYSTEMS
MOVING FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC INTO THE BERING SEA THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN THE MOST CONSISTENCY AND IS
PREFERRED BY NOW...ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING PRODUCING PERIODS OF SNOW
INLAND AND RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST. THE WAVES ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK AND FAST MOVING SO EXPECT GENERALLY MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND (VALDEZ AREA)
WHICH WILL SEE ENHANCED SNOWFALL DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. THE TROUGH/LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF MONDAY
AND HELP PULL EVERYTHING EASTWARD SO THAT SOUTHCENTRAL WILL DRY OUT
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH A LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND RIDGE BUILDING
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REALLY TIGHTEN UP.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.
THEREFORE...EXPECT A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD (12 HOURS OR SO) OF STRONG
GAP FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL COME IN FROM THE BERING SEA SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL MOVE ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE INLAND TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLDER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER CHANGING
PRECIPITATION IN BRISTOL BAY BACK TO ALL SNOW. WEAKENING LOW AND
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL AND
MINOR ACCUMULATION. THERE WILL BE SOME STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ISALLOBARIC MAX. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW MOVE EASTWARD TO SOUTHCENTRAL AND HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE BERING SEA. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY CROSS THE BERING SEA AND ARRIVE IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TUESDAY. DUE TO A MUCH FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT
WARMER AIR TO ALSO MAKE IT FURTHER NORTH...LIKELY WARM ENOUGH TO
CHANGE PRECIP TO RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST. THERE IS ALSO A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING RAIN AS THE WARM AIR FIRST ARRIVES...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THAT POTENTIAL AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR
THE BERING SEA AS LOWS MOVING OUT OF ASIA TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE
BERING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL INITIALLY ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD RESULTING IN PRIMARILY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF
SYSTEMS...BUT EXPECT DEEP LOWS TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD GALE TO STORM
FORCE WINDS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LOOK FOR PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAST STORM
TRACK AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EVERY TWO OR THREE DAYS. THERE
IS A VERY LARGE MODEL SPREAD IN THE TRACK OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS...SO
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE IS LOW. AFTER WARMING
UP EARLY THIS WEEK WITH STORMS TRACKING TO THE NORTHERN BERING
THERE IS AGREEMENT ON COOLING THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE BERING SEA
AND ALASKA MAINLAND AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS
UPSTREAM FLOW ORIGINATES FROM SIBERIA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...130 176.
         GALE WARNING...120 132 150 155 160 170 172 175 179 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 12