Small Craft Advisory 869, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Oct 31, 2012, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)

Expired

Nov 1, 2012, 7:00 AM AKDT

In force

15 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 312343
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 31 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011500-
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON. DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
THU MORNING THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 31 2012

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 26 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
24 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 31 2012

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT W OF SAND POINT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER
GUSTS 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. FROM SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...N
WIND 50 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 26 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-011500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 45 KT W OF 160W. SEAS 13 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-011500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 45 KT EXCEPT N 35 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 18 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-011500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS
11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT BERING SIDE...15 FT PACIFIC
SIDE.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-011500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT EXCEPT 25 KT W OF ATKA. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT EXCEPT 25 KT W OF ATKA. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-011500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-011500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Oct 31, 2:00 PM AKDT, 2 hours earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT WED OCT 31 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GENERAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW THU AND FRI ARE NOW
CONVERGING TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION. THE NAM IN GENERAL WILL BE USED
EARLY ON IN THE EAST TO HANDLE OUTFLOW WINDS...THE GFS OVERALL WILL
BE USED OTHERWISE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
500MB...A LARGE LOW OVER THE NORTH GULF DRIFTS SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS
THROUGH THU. A STRONG NORTHERLY JET AND COLD ADVECTION TO THE WEST OF
THIS CENTER DIGS OUT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND FEEDS THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CUT-OFF CENTER WELL SOUTH OF THE AK PEN THU AND FRI. THIS CENTER
BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN
GULF SAT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE WESTERN
BERING SEA THROUGH SAT.

SURFACE...SNOW SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING LOW...WERE
EVIDENT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. BRISK GAP FLOWS WERE ALSO
OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST...MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA
VALLEYS...AND GALES OVER THE WESTERN GULF TODAY. OUT WEST...BRISK AND
GUSTING NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW MAINLAND WITH
STRONG WINDS AND GALES ACROSS THE AK PEN...EASTERN ALEUTIANS...AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. COLD NORTHERLY WINDS FLOWING OVER THE WARMER
BERING SEA WATERS ARE PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN BERING SEA...EAST ALEUTIANS...AND AK PEN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE LOW OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN THROUGH THU
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTH GULF THU
MORNING...BUT CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THU
NIGHT. STRONG GAP FLOWS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND MATANUSKA VALLEY
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY
WILL DIMINISH THU. A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES SW OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA THU AFTERNOON THEN DRIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF FRI
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE STRETCHES EAST/WEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF THU EVENING...THEN MOVES TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST/KODIAK ISLAND FRI. GALES TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
ADVANCE/WITH FRONT AS IT TRACKS NORTH. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL REGENERATE BRISK GAP FLOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL START AS SNOW
BUT SHOULD SHIFT TO RAIN OR A MIX WITH WARM ADVECTION. THE BRUNT OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF.

.SW ALASKA...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE...THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

.AK PEN...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG AND EVEN
STRENGTHEN THU NIGHT AND FRI AS NORTH PACIFIC CENTER INTENSIFIES.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...PROBABLY MORE STEADY AND
POSSIBLY MIXED IN THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH NORTH
PACIFIC LOW MOVES NORTH AND WEST.

.ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
MARINE...STORM 130 132 138 150 351 352
         GALE 120 127 130 140 155 160 165
              170 171 172 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 12

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.