Small Craft Advisory 783, NWS Anchorage, AK

861 
FZAK52 PAFC 011121
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 1 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-020300-
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 968 MB LOW 440 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK WILL DRIFT TO 340 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK AT 951 MB FRI MORNING...THEN MOVE INTO THE GULF
OF AK ON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS THROUGH SAT.
$$

PKZ150-020300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 1 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 65 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. N OF CHIRIKOF
ISLAND...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
.FRI...N WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 27 
FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-020300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 1 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...N WIND 40 KT
INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...N WIND 65 KT. SEAS 25 FT BUILDING TO 31
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
24 FT SUBSIDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-020300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 1 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT EXCEPT 30 KT E OF 160W. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-020300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 1 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...N WIND 25 KT
BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...N WIND 30 KT.
SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...N WIND 25
KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-020300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 1 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT EXCEPT N 30 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT
EXCEPT 6 FT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT EXCEPT N 30 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS
11 FT EXCEPT 6 FT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-020300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 1 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT BERING SIDE...12 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT BERING SIDE...14 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-020300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 1 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-020300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 1 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W OF SEGUAM
ISLAND...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT.
.TONIGHT...E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W OF SEGUAM
ISLAND...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W OF SEGUAM
ISLAND...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-020300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 1 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-020300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 1 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-020300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 1 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT W OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT
EXCEPT 4 FT W OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT W OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 6
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-020300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU NOV 1 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT WED OCT 31 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GENERAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW THU AND FRI ARE NOW
CONVERGING TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION. THE NAM IN GENERAL WILL BE USED
EARLY ON IN THE EAST TO HANDLE OUTFLOW WINDS...THE GFS OVERALL WILL
BE USED OTHERWISE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
500MB...A LARGE LOW OVER THE NORTH GULF DRIFTS SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS
THROUGH THU. A STRONG NORTHERLY JET AND COLD ADVECTION TO THE WEST OF
THIS CENTER DIGS OUT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND FEEDS THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CUT-OFF CENTER WELL SOUTH OF THE AK PEN THU AND FRI. THIS CENTER
BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN
GULF SAT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE WESTERN
BERING SEA THROUGH SAT.

SURFACE...SNOW SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING LOW...WERE
EVIDENT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. BRISK GAP FLOWS WERE ALSO
OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST...MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA
VALLEYS...AND GALES OVER THE WESTERN GULF TODAY. OUT WEST...BRISK AND
GUSTING NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW MAINLAND WITH
STRONG WINDS AND GALES ACROSS THE AK PEN...EASTERN ALEUTIANS...AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. COLD NORTHERLY WINDS FLOWING OVER THE WARMER
BERING SEA WATERS ARE PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN BERING SEA...EAST ALEUTIANS...AND AK PEN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE LOW OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN THROUGH THU
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTH GULF THU
MORNING...BUT CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THU
NIGHT. STRONG GAP FLOWS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND MATANUSKA VALLEY
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY
WILL DIMINISH THU. A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES SW OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA THU AFTERNOON THEN DRIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF FRI
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE STRETCHES EAST/WEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF THU EVENING...THEN MOVES TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST/KODIAK ISLAND FRI. GALES TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
ADVANCE/WITH FRONT AS IT TRACKS NORTH. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL REGENERATE BRISK GAP FLOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL START AS SNOW
BUT SHOULD SHIFT TO RAIN OR A MIX WITH WARM ADVECTION. THE BRUNT OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF.

.SW ALASKA...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE...THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

.AK PEN...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG AND EVEN
STRENGTHEN THU NIGHT AND FRI AS NORTH PACIFIC CENTER INTENSIFIES.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...PROBABLY MORE STEADY AND
POSSIBLY MIXED IN THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH NORTH
PACIFIC LOW MOVES NORTH AND WEST.

.ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
MARINE...STORM 130 132 138 150 351 352
         GALE 120 127 130 140 155 160 165
              170 171 172 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 12