Small Craft Advisory 804, NWS Anchorage, AK

701 
FZAK52 PAFC 091259
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-100300-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 982 MB LOW 60NM NORTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR MOVES TO 30 NM NORTHWEST
OF COLD BAY AT 986 MB FRI AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TO
991 MB AS IT MOVES TO 180 NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND SAT
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-100300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT N OF CHIRIKOF
ISLAND. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT N OF CHIRIKOF
ISLAND. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-100300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT EXCEPT S 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-100300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-100300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. E OF PORT MOLLER...E WIND 15
KT. SEAS 6 FT.
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT AND S UN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-100300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-100300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. E OF DUTCH HARBOR...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING
TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-100300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-100300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-100300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-100300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-100300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-100300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE DOING ALRIGHT FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN START TO
DIVERGE. THEY ARE ALL BRINGING THE LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING ACROSS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GULF BUT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT VARIES BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE 00Z RUN OF THE NAM HAD THE
LOW MOVING INTO THE Y-K DELTA BUT THE 06Z RUN HAS IT FLOWING THE PATH
OF THE OTHER MODELS. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN AND WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE KEEPING THE
EASTERN SIDE VOID OF MOST PRECIP. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE A
FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS BRINGING IN WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC INTO THE REGION THAT IS OVERRUNNING THE COLD AIR THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
SITS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND WHILE IT IS WEAKENING
ANOTHER LOW IS BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH KODIAK
AND WILL MAKE IT TO THE KENAI PENINSULA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE IN
OVER KODIAK BY FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL
BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS THESE FRONTS PASS THROUGH THE DOMAIN THE PRECIP
WILL START OFF AS SNOW AND TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN DUE TO THE
ABUNDANCE OF WARM AIR BEING BROUGHT UP FROM THE SOUTH. AREAS FURTHER
NORTH WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE COLD AIR POOLING AT THE SURFACE
CAUSING THE WARMER AIR TO OVERRUN LEAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN FOR THE
SOUTHCENTRAL IS LOW.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE FIRST FRONT IS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH AREAS
NEAR THE COAST CAUSING OVERRUNNING WITH THE WARMER AIR BEING BROUGHT
IN BY THE FRONT. THIS IS CAUSING AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
AREA. AS THAT FRONT FALLS APART THE NEXT ONE WILL MOVE IN THIS
EVENING BRINGING FREEZING RAIN BACK TO AREAS THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE CONSTANT PUSH OF WARMER AIR FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL CAUSE AREAS ALONG THE COAST TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN
AND THIS WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY FURTHER INLAND.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...LOW PRESSURE THAT RESIDES SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS IS BRINGING CONSISTENT WARM MOIST AIR OVER THE ISLANDS
AND INTO THE BERING. THIS IS KEEPING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE AREA
THAT WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS PUSHING THE RAIN OFF
TO THE EAST. FOLLOWING THIS HIGH PRESSURE ANOTHER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON SATURDAY BRINGING
MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN DOMINANT OVER THE REGION WILL LAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THEN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER MAINLAND ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE ALSO
INDICATING A FAIRLY DEEP LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING THAT WILL BRING
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE STATE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING...127 120 130 150 155 160 165 180 170 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DWK NOV 12