Gale Warning 711, NWS Anchorage, AK

602 
FZAK61 PAFC 092359
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-101500-
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF COAST
SAT MORNING AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUN. A 995 MB
LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 56N 149W FRI EVENING AND MOVE TO 58N 149W AT
993 MB SAT AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 57N 145W AT 999 MB
SUN AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ351-101500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-101500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT W OF 148W. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW TO NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

219 
FZAK61 PAFC 101234
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-110300-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 993 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 58N 148W SAT MORNING AND WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES TO 59N 140W AT 1003 MB MON MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-110300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-110300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
445 PM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO
INTERIOR ALASKA...KEEPING MUCH OF THE EASTERN MAINLAND PRECIPITATION
FREE AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION HAS
RETURNED TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS REACHED THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND
EXTENDS EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA. OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND...COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS BEEN OVERRUN BY WARM/MOIST
AIR BEING ADVECTED IN WITH THE FRONT...LEADING TO AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN. OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AK PRECIPITATION HAS PRIMARILY BEEN LIMITED
TO RAIN OVER KODIAK ISLAND WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA. AS THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
WEAKENS A NEW LOW HAS BEGUN TO FORM ALONG A BOUNDARY TO ITS
EAST...ROUGHLY 200 MILES SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
EXCEPTION THE NAM...WHICH IS AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO THE POSITION
AND INTENSITY OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...DEPICTING A SOLUTION THAT IS
WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN THOSE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS
DIFFERENCE IS SIGNIFICANT...AS A LOW TRACK FURTHER TO THE NORTH WOULD
INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG GAP WINDS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK...WHICH WOULD IN TURN HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW. THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED FURTHER
BELOW. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...THERE REMAINS A GENERAL CONSENSUS
AMONGST THE MODELS IN DEVELOPING A TRIPLE POINT LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 110
KT UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE AKPEN INTO
THE EASTERN BERING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA ON SATURDAY MORNING AS A NEW TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY CONFINED TO RAIN OVER KODIAK
ISLAND AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
AK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE NEWLY FORMED LOW
ADVANCES NORTHWARD AND ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND
MATANUSKA VALLEY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OFF AS SNOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND COLD
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. FURTHER SOUTH...THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALIZED AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED
OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS AS IF TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN AS SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK. ANOTHER
CONCERN IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GAP WINDS IN FAVORED AREAS
SUCH AS THE TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE VALLEY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BERING.
STRONG WINDS COUPLED WITH EXPECTED SNOWFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THESE AREAS. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS OUTCOME WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR NORTH
THE LOW ULTIMATELY PROGRESSES.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURGE OF WARM MOIST
AIR CONTINUES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT FROM
THE SOUTH. FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY AS THE CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION
TO ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY WHERE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ADDITIONALLY...COASTAL
AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY WILL SEE STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
LOW APPROACHES.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AKPEN AND EASTERN
BERING...INCLUDING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE AKPEN. THE AREA WILL SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY
AS TRANSITORY RIDGING MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO THE BERING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND KEEPING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 150 155 160 165 170 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CB NOV 12