Small Craft Advisory 794, NWS Anchorage, AK

566 
FZAK52 PAFC 060017
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-061500-
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA EARLY WED MORNING AND THEN MOVE INLAND. A WEATHER
FRONT FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
TUE AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTH TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-061500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-061500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-061500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-061500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-061500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SOUTH AND EAST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND NORTH AND WEST...N WIND
15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE...SOUTH AND EAST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT SOUTH AND EAST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND EXCEPT
VARIABLE 10 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ170-061500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
UNALASKA E...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-061500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT BY MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-061500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-061500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT PACIFIC SIDE...25 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 8 FT
BERING SIDE...15 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-061500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-061500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
$$

PKZ179-061500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE NAM WAS THE
PREFERRED MODEL DUE TO ITS BETTER RESOLUTION. MOVING OUT INTO THE MID
AND LONG TERMS THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO
THE GULF FRIDAY THE GFS AND GEM STAY PRETTY CLOSE BUT THE EC HAS THE
LOW FURTHER SOUTH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF
THE GFS LED TO IT BEING THE MODEL OF CHOICE IN THE LONG TERM.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT RUNS NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA
IS SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. TO THE WEST OF THIS TROUGH HIGH
PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN BERING. THESE TWO FEATURES HAVE
KEPT STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THEM BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE
EASTERN BERING AND ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE STATE. WEAKENING
LOW PRESSURE SITS IN THE NORTHERN GULF KEEPING CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF PRECIP IN THE AREAS AROUND THE LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...WEAK LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF
KEEPING SHOWERY PRECIP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOME ISOLATED AREAS
MAKING IT FURTHER INLAND UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF PLACES IN THE
SOUTHCENTRAL CLEAR OF PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALSO BRING WEAK FLOW TO MOST AREAS...WITH EXCEPTION OF SOME
LOCATIONS WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
OUT EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY WHEN THE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA. WEAK FLOW AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
BERING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OFF TO THE EAST WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS OUT AHEAD OF IT. IT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE EASTERN BERING
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A NEW LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MAKE IT TO THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING PRECIP WITH
IT. THEN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS WE MOVE FURTHER INTO THE WEEK
WITH LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. LATE NEXT
WEEKEND THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED
AGAIN WITH A STRONG RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE STATE AND WITH A TROUGH
SETTING UP OVER THE BERING. THIS COULD BRING MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO THE STATE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING...127 128 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 172
                        175 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...140 160 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DWK NOV 12