Small Craft Advisory 770, NWS Anchorage, AK

738 
FZAK51 PAFC 271139
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-280300-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GULF TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
1015 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 90 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-280300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-280300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-280300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-280300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ130-280300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-280300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NE WIND 25
KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NE WIND
15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-280300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-280300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-280300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1220 PM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE REX BLOCK IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
WITH A CLOSED HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE BERING STRAIT SITTING ATOP OF
A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. A COUPLE VERY
WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA ALONG
THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE PRODUCING NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA.

THE STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOWLY MEANDERING NORTHWARD
CLOSER TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA RESULTING IN
STRENGTHENING WINDS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 46075 SHOW MAX
GALE TO MIN STORM WIND GUSTS. THERE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS REACHING
LAND WITH STEADY RAIN REMAINING FURTHER SOUTH.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF TROUGH DIGGING DOWN OUT OF THE
ARCTIC AND THE RESULTANT BREAKDOWN OF THE REX BLOCK. FOR NOW
PREFER THE GFS WHICH REPRESENTS A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION AMONG
THE VARIOUS MODELS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...WEAK SHORT-WAVES TRANSITING THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A
MINOR INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. MEANWHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN A BIT. ALL OF THIS TOGETHER WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED GAP WINDS...PRIMARILY IN NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORT-WAVES MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTH. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
CLEAR AND CALM.

THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL REACH ITS MAXIMUM NORTHWARD EXTENT TONIGHT
AND THEN WILL BEGIN TO TRACK EASTWARD SATURDAY AS UPSTREAM WESTERLIES
INCREASE. AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP OUT OF RUSSIAN ARCTIC SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND WEST...CAUSING
THE PACIFIC LOW TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EAST PACIFIC.
THEREFORE...WINDS WILL PEAK ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY.

PATTERN CHANGE WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN EARNEST ON MONDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
ENSUES. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS...BUT
AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT A LOW TO QUICKLY
FORM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH AND THEN DEEPEN
AS COLD AIR POURS ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. UPPER TROUGH POSITION
IS KEY TO WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP. BASED ON THE LATEST
MODELS IT LOOKS LIKE SURFACE LOW WILL END UP SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING
WHICH MEANS BEST CHANCE OF SNOW AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS WE HEAD THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK ENERGY IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. WIDESPREAD COLD ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MARINE AREAS. AS THE TROUGH DIGS TO THE WEST THE
PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...MAINTAINING A WEAK SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE DIGGING
TROUGH AND A STORM CROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO A MAJOR STORM IN THE GULF BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THIS LOW WILL ULTIMATELY END UP...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA OR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WILL BARE THE BRUNT OF THE STORM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...155 170.
         GALE WARNING...132 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB OCT 12