Gale Warning 690, NWS Anchorage, AK

527 
FZAK52 PAFC 271149
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-280300-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING
SEA THROUGH MONDAY. 

$$

PKZ150-280300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-280300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
25 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-280300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-280300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-280300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING.
FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG
THE COAST.
.SUN...NE WIND 10. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE
COAST.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-280300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...BERING SIDE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...NE
WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...NE
WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...BERING SIDE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...NE WIND
30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-280300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-280300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT
BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-280300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...12 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT BERING SIDE...10 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-280300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-280300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-280300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1220 PM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE REX BLOCK IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
WITH A CLOSED HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE BERING STRAIT SITTING ATOP OF
A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. A COUPLE VERY
WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA ALONG
THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE PRODUCING NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA.

THE STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOWLY MEANDERING NORTHWARD
CLOSER TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA RESULTING IN
STRENGTHENING WINDS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 46075 SHOW MAX
GALE TO MIN STORM WIND GUSTS. THERE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS REACHING
LAND WITH STEADY RAIN REMAINING FURTHER SOUTH.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF TROUGH DIGGING DOWN OUT OF THE
ARCTIC AND THE RESULTANT BREAKDOWN OF THE REX BLOCK. FOR NOW
PREFER THE GFS WHICH REPRESENTS A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION AMONG
THE VARIOUS MODELS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...WEAK SHORT-WAVES TRANSITING THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A
MINOR INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. MEANWHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN A BIT. ALL OF THIS TOGETHER WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED GAP WINDS...PRIMARILY IN NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORT-WAVES MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTH. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
CLEAR AND CALM.

THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL REACH ITS MAXIMUM NORTHWARD EXTENT TONIGHT
AND THEN WILL BEGIN TO TRACK EASTWARD SATURDAY AS UPSTREAM WESTERLIES
INCREASE. AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP OUT OF RUSSIAN ARCTIC SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND WEST...CAUSING
THE PACIFIC LOW TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EAST PACIFIC.
THEREFORE...WINDS WILL PEAK ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY.

PATTERN CHANGE WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN EARNEST ON MONDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
ENSUES. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS...BUT
AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT A LOW TO QUICKLY
FORM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH AND THEN DEEPEN
AS COLD AIR POURS ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. UPPER TROUGH POSITION
IS KEY TO WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP. BASED ON THE LATEST
MODELS IT LOOKS LIKE SURFACE LOW WILL END UP SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING
WHICH MEANS BEST CHANCE OF SNOW AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS WE HEAD THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK ENERGY IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. WIDESPREAD COLD ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA ALONG WITH SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MARINE AREAS. AS THE TROUGH DIGS TO THE WEST THE
PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...MAINTAINING A WEAK SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE DIGGING
TROUGH AND A STORM CROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO A MAJOR STORM IN THE GULF BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THIS LOW WILL ULTIMATELY END UP...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA OR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WILL BARE THE BRUNT OF THE STORM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...155 170.
         GALE WARNING...132 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB OCT 12