Small Craft Advisory 745, NWS Anchorage, AK

850 
FZAK52 PAFC 190000
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 18 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-191500-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA BY FRI NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
BERING SEA ON FRI AND INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA SAT.

$$

PKZ150-191500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 18 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-191500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 18 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES E OF
SAND POINT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES E OF SAND
POINT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT W OF SAND POINT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-191500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-191500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-191500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT W OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT W OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SW 10 KT W OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-191500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 18 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT W OF DUTCH HARBOR. SEAS 6 FT
BERING SIDE...3 FT ON PACIFIC SIDE. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-191500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 18 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-191500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 4
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT EXCEPT S 15 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-191500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 18 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT E OF AMCHITKA.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-191500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 18 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-191500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-191500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 18 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 17 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
BERING SEA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA TODAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH THE RIDGE REACHING THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE STATE AND THE LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA
BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE PATTERN IS VERY CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXCEPT
THAT THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE SURFACE HIGH AND
LOW ARE ALSO MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL PRODUCE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND DOING QUITE
WELL WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS WELL. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING WITH
THE LARGE RIDGE IN THE BERING SEA CREATING A STABLE PATTERN OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL SEE A FEW SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE GULF COAST AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES EASTWARD. BY TOMORROW THESE SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED AND
ONLY REMAIN AS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THE NORTH TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE TYPICAL CHANNELED TERRAIN AREAS
SUCH AS SEWARD AND WHITTIER. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES
WITH JUST A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. THINGS SHOULD BE MIXED
WELL ENOUGH AFTER TONIGHT THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY MORE FOG OR
STRATUS IN THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE MAINLAND PART OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD WILL BE THE BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL EXTEND WEST WARD THROUGH THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THE NORTHWEST WINDS OFF THE BERING SEA WILL
BRING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS...MIXED WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWARD IN THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE
NEXT FRONT EDGES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS TO BRING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE.
THIS LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP TO BE A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE
STATE WHICH WILL STEER STORMS SOUTH OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA...WITH SOME STRATUS OVER THE BERING SEA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 12