Small Craft Advisory 743, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 17 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
BERING SEA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA TODAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH THE RIDGE REACHING THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE STATE AND THE LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA
BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE PATTERN IS VERY CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXCEPT
THAT THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE SURFACE HIGH AND
LOW ARE ALSO MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL PRODUCE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND DOING QUITE
WELL WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS WELL. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING WITH
THE LARGE RIDGE IN THE BERING SEA CREATING A STABLE PATTERN OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL SEE A FEW SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE GULF COAST AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES EASTWARD. BY TOMORROW THESE SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED AND
ONLY REMAIN AS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THE NORTH TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE TYPICAL CHANNELED TERRAIN AREAS
SUCH AS SEWARD AND WHITTIER. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES
WITH JUST A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. THINGS SHOULD BE MIXED
WELL ENOUGH AFTER TONIGHT THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY MORE FOG OR
STRATUS IN THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE MAINLAND PART OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD WILL BE THE BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL EXTEND WEST WARD THROUGH THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THE NORTHWEST WINDS OFF THE BERING SEA WILL
BRING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS...MIXED WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWARD IN THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE
NEXT FRONT EDGES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS TO BRING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE.
THIS LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP TO BE A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE
STATE WHICH WILL STEER STORMS SOUTH OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA...WITH SOME STRATUS OVER THE BERING SEA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 12