Small Craft Advisory 728, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012

UPPER TROF ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR HAD PICKED UP ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE. THIS WAS MISSED BY
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. SNOW WILL END THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES
SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY FRI NIGHT. WEAK RIDGING FORECAST
ACROSS COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT OVER ALL OF ZONE 141 BY SAT
MORNING, OR SOONER.

INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG
THE ALASKA RANGE SUGGESTS SNOW FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AREAS BUT THE MOISTURE JUST
IS NOT THERE, YET. SATELLITE SHOWS FRONT LYING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS-KODIAK
TO THE PANHANDLE INCHING ITS WAY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST. ASSOCIATED RAIN
AND FOG KODIAK ISLAND EASTWARD IS STILL (1PM FRI) A FAIR WAYS OFF THE COAST.
SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASE THE SNOW CHANCES FROM COOK INLET EASTWARD LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WHAT SNOW DOES DEVELOP WILL CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN ALONG THE COAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND BE MOSTLY ABOVE 800 FT
ELSEWHERE. RAIN CONTINUES KODIAK ISLAND AND INCREASES AND BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL AREAS EAST OF THE AK RANGE AS SNOW LEVELS RISE TO 1000
FT OR MORE. SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW LIKELY TO REACH THE MCCARTHY AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT THE REMAINDER OF ZONE 141 TO STAY DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL HOLD ITS POSITION
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEAK. COLD GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES WILL PERSIST OVER
THE EASTERN BERING, FOX ISLANDS AND ALASKA PENINSULA WITH EVEN COLDER
CONDITIONS SPREADING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN FROM ATTKA TO NEAR PORT HEIDEN
THIS WEEKEND AND COULD GO EITHER WAY AT ST PAUL. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LITE
TO NOTHING AT ALL. SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY THINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH POSSIBLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND AK RANGE. SNOW LEVELS ALSO DROP TO SEA LEVEL EVEN ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST. HOWEVER, SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL HOLD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AND KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM FOR
PLACES LIKE SEWARD, WHITTIER AND CORDOVA AND MAYBE EVEN VALDEZ.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE AREAS 160, 165, 170, 180, 185 AND THE BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST
OF 180.

DPERCY OCT 12