Small Craft Advisory 720, NWS Anchorage, AK

438 
FZAK51 PAFC 101150
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-110300-
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN WEAKEN. A WEATHER FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON THEN
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

$$

PKZ120-110300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. N WIND TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.  SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. N WIND TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-110300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   

$$

PKZ125-110300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3
FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE MORNING. WINDS BECOMING
VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.   

$$

PKZ129-110300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25
KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND
15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   

$$

PKZ130-110300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 30
KT NEAR KENNEDY ENTRANCE THIS MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-110300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-110300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-110300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-110300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.    

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
115 PM AKDT TUE OCT 9 2012

INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED INVERSION HAS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOST AREAS BELOW 3500 FT.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AND WILL CONTINUE THOUGH OUT TUE
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG MAY INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IN
THE AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THOSE ZONES WITH
CHANNELED WIND, SUCH AS WHITTIER, SEWARD AND THE GREATER VALDEZ AREA.

LEFT OVER MOISTER OF THE LONG LIVED FRONTAL ZONE PROVIDING SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW MOSTLY UP ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE.
THERE IS AN AREA OF OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ZONE 141 EAST OF THE
COPPER RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT, OR BOUNDARY, WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROF NOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR MOVES SOUTHEAST TO THE YUKON WHICH WILL DRAG A
TROF AXIS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF 150W OR SO. COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO
EDGE SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
INVERSION WED AND WED NGT. THAT ALONG WITH INCREASING NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD ELIMINATE THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH MOST
AREAS BECOMING VFR AS EARLY AS WED AFTERNOON.

1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF ZONE 141
AT NEBESNA AND SLANA TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW EXPECTED DOWN TOWARD
MCCARTHY SINCE THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, MOSTLY.

RATHER SUNNY AND BREEZY IS THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE KODIAK ISLAND (CLOUDS) AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE THERE'LL BE AN OCCASIONAL
CHANCE OF RAIN AND FOG.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A WEAK UPPER TROF DROPS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WHICH WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS
SYSTEM IS MUCH TOO WEAK TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION AND MAY HAVE
TROUBLE GENERATING ANY CLOUDS AS WELL. STORM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL REDEVELOP AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THE ASSOCIATED SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW WILL SPREAD RAIN TO KODIAK SAT AFTERNOON, THEN TO THE IMMEDIATE
NORTH GULF COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

LONGER RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE
ARCTIC INTO THE EASTERN BERING AND WESTERN INTERIOR. BIG QUESTION IS
WILL IT DO SO IN A RETROGRESSIVE, OR, A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SUCH AS
THE GFS FORECASTS. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS BRINGS COLD AND SNOW TO ALL
AREAS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA TUE AND WED. PATTERN OF RECENT YEARS HAS
BEEN FOR THESE SOUTHWARD BOUND SYSTEMS TO PULL SOUTHWESTWARD AS THEY
APPROACH THE ALASKA RANGE. VERY FEW HAVE TRACKED INTO THE SUSITNA
VALLEY OR COPPER RIVER BASIN. THIS FORECASTER WILL EAGERLY WAIT AND
SEE IF THERE'LL BE ENOUGH UPSTREAM FORCING TO PREVENT AN AGEOSTROPHIC
RETROGRESSIVE SET UP.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES BERING SEA OFF SHORE.

DPERCY OCT 12