Gale Warning 661, NWS Anchorage, AK

092 
FZAK52 PAFC 102331
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-111500-
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN RUSSIA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.
A 991 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK WILL MOVE TO 400 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK FRI MORNING AND DISSIPATE. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO
UNIMAK ISLAND FRI AFTERNOON AT 976 MB. 
$$

PKZ150-111500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-111500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-111500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-111500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-111500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ170-111500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-111500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-111500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 10
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-111500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...WINDS BECOMING NW 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-111500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NE 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-111500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ179-111500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
115 PM AKDT TUE OCT 9 2012

INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED INVERSION HAS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOST AREAS BELOW 3500 FT.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AND WILL CONTINUE THOUGH OUT TUE
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG MAY INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IN
THE AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THOSE ZONES WITH
CHANNELED WIND, SUCH AS WHITTIER, SEWARD AND THE GREATER VALDEZ AREA.

LEFT OVER MOISTER OF THE LONG LIVED FRONTAL ZONE PROVIDING SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW MOSTLY UP ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE.
THERE IS AN AREA OF OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ZONE 141 EAST OF THE
COPPER RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT, OR BOUNDARY, WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROF NOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR MOVES SOUTHEAST TO THE YUKON WHICH WILL DRAG A
TROF AXIS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF 150W OR SO. COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO
EDGE SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
INVERSION WED AND WED NGT. THAT ALONG WITH INCREASING NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD ELIMINATE THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH MOST
AREAS BECOMING VFR AS EARLY AS WED AFTERNOON.

1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF ZONE 141
AT NEBESNA AND SLANA TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW EXPECTED DOWN TOWARD
MCCARTHY SINCE THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, MOSTLY.

RATHER SUNNY AND BREEZY IS THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE KODIAK ISLAND (CLOUDS) AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE THERE'LL BE AN OCCASIONAL
CHANCE OF RAIN AND FOG.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A WEAK UPPER TROF DROPS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WHICH WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS
SYSTEM IS MUCH TOO WEAK TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION AND MAY HAVE
TROUBLE GENERATING ANY CLOUDS AS WELL. STORM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL REDEVELOP AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THE ASSOCIATED SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW WILL SPREAD RAIN TO KODIAK SAT AFTERNOON, THEN TO THE IMMEDIATE
NORTH GULF COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

LONGER RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE
ARCTIC INTO THE EASTERN BERING AND WESTERN INTERIOR. BIG QUESTION IS
WILL IT DO SO IN A RETROGRESSIVE, OR, A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SUCH AS
THE GFS FORECASTS. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS BRINGS COLD AND SNOW TO ALL
AREAS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA TUE AND WED. PATTERN OF RECENT YEARS HAS
BEEN FOR THESE SOUTHWARD BOUND SYSTEMS TO PULL SOUTHWESTWARD AS THEY
APPROACH THE ALASKA RANGE. VERY FEW HAVE TRACKED INTO THE SUSITNA
VALLEY OR COPPER RIVER BASIN. THIS FORECASTER WILL EAGERLY WAIT AND
SEE IF THERE'LL BE ENOUGH UPSTREAM FORCING TO PREVENT AN AGEOSTROPHIC
RETROGRESSIVE SET UP.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES BERING SEA OFF SHORE.

DPERCY OCT 12