Small Craft Advisory 714, NWS Anchorage, AK

689 
FZAK52 PAFC 081158
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-090300-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 260 NM SOUTHWEST OF ATTU AT 990
MB LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO 984 MB AND MOVE TO 195 NM
WEST OF ATTU LATE TUE NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN BERING BY TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT E OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. SEAS
12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT E OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS.
SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-090300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-090300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. E
OF PORT MOLLER...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-090300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT BERING SIDE...12 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-090300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT SE 25 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND.
SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. E OF SEGUAM
ISLAND...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. FROM SHEMYA W...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-090300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. S OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT E OF
ST MATTHEW ISLAND. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-090300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. DENSE
FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
TWO LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED FEATURES DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THIS MORNING. THE FIRST...A CLOSED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF/NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THE SECOND...A CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHCENTRAL PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES A VERY LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH WITH
SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS. A WARM FRONT LIES IN THE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ARCING FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE
SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND BRINGING WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PREDOMINANT FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS NEW DISTURBANCES FROM A KAMCHATKA UPPER LOW
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...BUT SYNOPTICALLY THEY
REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER IN THE SHORT TERM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A WARM FRONT SURGING NORTHWARD TODAY CONTINUES
TO SPREAD RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL LAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN MOST LOCATIONS...TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE KENAI PENINSULA AND LATE
AFTERNOON FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MAT-SU. RAIN WILL LINGER IN THE
NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW. ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN THE GULF WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BRINGING A
BREAK FROM THE WET PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WARM AIR ALOFT SPREADING OVER COOLER AIR AT THE
SURFACE IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS TODAY. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTH AND NORTHWEST TODAY BRINGING RAIN TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND VALLEY. THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF BRISTOL BAY
WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME DRYING AND CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
THAT SLOWLY SPREADS NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SINK
SOUTHWARD TODAY BUT THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS WELL AS A STALLING WARM FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM
THE WESTERN CHAIN THROUGH THE PRIBILOFS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH TUESDAY KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE
PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER IN THE NORTH PACIFIC SENDING
PERIODIC DISTURBANCES OVER THE CHAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE CURRENT PATTERN LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN LATER ON THE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE GETS BEATEN DOWN. THE EXTENDED PATTERN FEATURES QUITE A BIT OF
VARIABILITY BUT GENERAL TRENDS BETWEEN GUIDANCE INCLUDE A JET FURTHER
SOUTH IN THE PACIFIC/GULF AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE MAINLAND. A
WELCOME BREAK FROM THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF THE PAST MONTH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 172 175 176 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL OCT 12