Gale Warning 659, NWS Anchorage, AK

985 
FZAK52 PAFC 081934 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1135 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

UPDATED ZONES 172 175

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-090300-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 260 NM SOUTHWEST OF ATTU AT 990
MB LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO 984 MB AND MOVE TO 195 NM
WEST OF ATTU LATE TUE NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN BERING BY TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT E OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. SEAS
12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT E OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS.
SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-090300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-090300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. E
OF PORT MOLLER...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-090300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT BERING SIDE...12 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-090300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
1135 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. DENSE FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT SE 25 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND.
SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. E OF SEGUAM
ISLAND...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
1135 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. FROM SHEMYA W...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-090300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. S OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT E OF
ST MATTHEW ISLAND. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-090300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. DENSE
FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

571 
FZAK52 PAFC 082322
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-091500-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL BERING WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHWESTERN BERING TUE AFTERNOON. A 996 MB LOW 340 NM SOUTHWEST OF
ATTU WILL MOVE TO 100 NM WEST OF ATTU AT 989 MB EARLY TUE
EVENING...THEN DRIFT BACK TO NEAR 340 SOUTHWEST OF ATTU WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH WED AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-091500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-091500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-091500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT EARLY MORNING INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
$$

PKZ165-091500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-091500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. SOUTH AND EAST OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SOUTH AND EAST OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ170-091500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-091500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-091500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. EAST OF SEGUAM
ISLAND...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. VARIABLE WIND 10 KT WEST OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST
OF ATKA...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-091500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT EAST OF 180. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-091500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-091500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ179-091500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN IN THE
EVENING.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
WHILE A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THE STRONG MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH IS PUMPING MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
OVERALL ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN DIVERGE AS WE MOVE INTO THE MID WEEK TIME
FRAME. THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS WITH THE NAM BRINGING TOO MUCH COLD AIR
SOUTH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. BY WED THE
MODELS STILL GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND THE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE CONTINUED PUSH OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL KEEP THE RAIN GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND IS ANTICIPATED
TO MIX DOWN INTO COOK INLET THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MAT-SU. RAIN WILL LINGER IN THE
NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL BUILD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA BRINGING
A BREAK FROM THE WET PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER THIS COULD
RESULT IN VERY DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING SEA INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE SPREAD OF RAIN HAS
BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THOUGH WE STILL
EXPECT IT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. AS THE FRONT
AND MOISTURE MOVES NORTH WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DRY AND SOME
CLEARING TO OCCUR IN TH BRISTOL BAY ZONE THIS EVENING. WITH CLEARING
ALOFT AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE AN ISSUE
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE STRONG LOW NOW A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE CHAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH. STRONG SOUTH FLOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
THROUGH MON. AS THE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA BUILDS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST THE MOIST FLOW WILL SHIFT WEST RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS
MON. ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
MOON NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN. FURTHER WEST
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THUS EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THE MOIST CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE CURRENT PATTERN LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING THE LOWS TO TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
BEGINNING THU AND FRI. THE EXTENDED PATTERN GENERALLY HOLDS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL REGION IN DRIER CONDITIONS WHILE SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE
BERING SEA REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 172 175 176 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

SAM OCT 12