Small Craft Advisory 702, NWS Anchorage, AK

515 
FZAK51 PAFC 032328
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 3 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-041500-
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A SERIES OF WEAKENING WEATHER FRONTS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF FRIDAY.

$$

PKZ120-041500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 3 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 35 KT E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT E 30 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-041500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 3 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-041500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 3 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-041500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 3 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-041500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-041500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-041500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-041500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 3 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-041500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 3 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND MAINLAND ALASKA HAS SHIFTED TO
THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR
THE ALCAN BORDER. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MAINLAND AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE BERING...WITH AN
EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT LOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD ALONG 50N SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AKPEN
WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DISSIPATING
THE SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE AKPEN TONIGHT AS THE OTHER WEAK LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND DISSIPATES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS IN BRINGING THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING ALONG 170W ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
DEEPENING IT AS IT MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING OFF OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AK. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION
ON WEDNESDAY AS TRANSITORY RIDGING MOVES THROUGH...BUT RAIN WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE COAST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A WARM FRONT IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SECONDARY FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING LOW MOVES ASHORE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
RAIN WILL BRIEFLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT BEFORE RETURNING ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST AS
THE LOW PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING. AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON ITS EASTERN SIDE
AND AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED ON THURSDAY. A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM GOODNEWS BAY
NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CONCERNS.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE CHAIN MOVES INTO THE BERING
AND DEEPENS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC RESULTING IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST INTO THE EXTENDED TERM FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH 155 161
MARINE...STORM WARNING 170 172 175
         GALE WARNING 120 130 150 155 160 165 176 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CB OCT 12