Gale Warning 622, NWS Anchorage, AK

190 
FZAK61 PAFC 031258
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 3 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-040300-
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 3 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 56N 146W WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GULF WED NIGHT AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI. 
$$

PKZ351-040300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 3 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-040300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 3 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

STABILIZATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AT
LEAST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED. AN EQUALLY BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
KAMCHATKA TO THE EASTERN BERING...WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE AKPEN. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WITH
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS...ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR...AND ANOTHER
LOW IS OVER NORTHERN KAMCHATKA.  A WEATHER FRONT IS MAKING SLOW
PROGRESS INTO WESTERN AK. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF AND AREAS
EAST OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES...ALTHOUGH A WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE LOW NORTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...BUT NOT BEFORE IT HAS
KICKED THE FRONT INLAND. AN EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THIS FEATURE IN THE
FORM OF A WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT...WITH A
SECOND WARM FRONT ARRIVING ON THU. MEANWHILE THE EXTRATROPICAL
REMAINS OF JELAWAT WILL MOVE ALONG 50 N UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THE
LOW TURNS NORTH ALONG 170W AND MOVES INTO THE BERING...BRIEFLY
INTENSIFYING BEFORE REACHING THE BERING STRAIT FRI EVENING. AN
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME WILL AFFECT THE AKPEN AND MAINLAND AK
BEGINNING ON WED.

THE FORECAST UTILIZES THE GFS IN THE SHORT TERM FOR CONSISTENCY AND
THEN TRANSITIONS TO THE EC...AND THEN HPC GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...RAIN AND GALES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH FRI.

FOR SW AK...RAIN AND WIND WILL END THIS EVENING...BUT REDEVELOP WED
AS THE TROPICAL REMNANTS MOVE INTO THE BERING AND PERSIST INTO FRI.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND AHEAD
OF THE FIRST WARM FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH BARELY A BREAK
BEFORE THE SECOND FRONT ARRIVES WED NIGHT INTO THU. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS THE MOISTURE PLUME FOLLOWS THE SECOND FRONT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WIND ARRIVES IN THE WEST WHEN ANOTHER
FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE ALEUTIANS BEGINNING FRI NIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SW AK WILL HAVE A BRIEF BREAK SAT BEFORE
BEING AFFECTED BE THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. SE OF THE AK RANGE WILL BE
FAIRLY DRY...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120 150 155 160 165 170 172 175 176 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS OCT 12