Small Craft Advisory 700, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Aug 31, 2012, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)

Expired

Sep 1, 2012, 7:00 AM AKDT

In force

15 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 312318
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011500-
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 992 MB LOW 125 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU INTENSIFIES TO 987 MB SAT
AFTERNOON 125 NM NORTH OF ADAK. THIS LOW THEN INTENSIFIES TO 985 MB
SUN AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INLAND NEAR PLATINUM.

$$

PKZ150-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-011500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND LESS THAN 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-011500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-011500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-011500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-011500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 25 KT
W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-011500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Aug 31, 5:14 AM AKDT, 10 hours 46 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
514 AM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE DOMINANT CENTER OF ACTION ON THE WEATHER MAP THIS MORNING IS
CURRENTLY STATIONARY OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA. THIS LOW IS
ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL JET STREAKS ON BOTH THE UPSTREAM AND
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THIS
LOW ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TOWARDS
MAINLAND ALASKA AND WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...OUT TOWARDS
KAMCHATKA LOW PRESSURE IS CONSOLIDATING AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN BERING LATER TODAY AND THEN TO THE EASTERN BERING BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE STRENGTHENING TO 984 MB.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FROM MONDAY
ONWARD...MODELS CONTINUE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH SOME
RELATIVELY MINOR SPATIAL AND SPEED DISCREPANCIES IN THE PRIMARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE GFS WAS PREFERRED FROM THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED THEREAFTER. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT ALL OF THE PRIMARY GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND TURNAGAIN ARM
FOR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED PERIODS OF
RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER ALL OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE LOWER COOK
INLET SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A PROLONGED
BARRIER JET ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND EXTENDING INTO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE SURFACE FEATURES BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
TO BRISTOL BAY. TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT
RAIN PERSIST WITH SUPPORT ALOFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE PERSISTS MAINLY VFR CEILINGS WITH THE OCCASIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INLAND FROM THE WEST LATER
TODAY AND BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE REGION
BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

A WARM FRONT ORGANIZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING WILL ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST ALONG SAID FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GALES
DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ISLANDS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO OCCLUDE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING STRONG WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM ONCE
AGAIN. AFTER THAT...A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH LATE WEEK. MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING A POTENT SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK BY
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK THAT WOULD BRING A POTENTIAL EARLY-SEASON
CHINOOK EVENT TO ANCHORAGE. IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT
THIS AS OF YET...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...120 125 172 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29/CC AUG 12

In the hours before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
230 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

AKZ145-012230-

A VERY MOIST NORTH PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN DURING THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS
LIKELY THROUGH LABOR DAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CAUSE WATER LEVELS IN RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS TO RISE QUICKLY.

WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY HIGH FROM RECENT RAIN...AND SOIL
IS NEARLY SATURATED.

PEOPLE INVOLVED WITH OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY RISING WATER LEVELS. BE
PREPARED TO QUICKLY MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED RIVERS AND STREAMS. TURN AROUND DON'T
DROWN.

THIS STATEMENT WILL NOT BE UPDATED UNLESS CONDITIONS CHANGE.

DS

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.