Small Craft Advisory 699, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Aug 31, 2012, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)

Expired

Sep 1, 2012, 7:00 AM AKDT

In force

15 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 312318
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011500-
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1005 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND INTENSIFIES TO 998 MB
SAT MORNING 75 NM EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AND THEN MOVES INLAND. A
WEATHER FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND APPROACHES THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-011500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT SE 35 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT EXCEPT E 25 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-011500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S WIND 10 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING N
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-011500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING E LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-011500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. . 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   

$$

PKZ130-011500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-011500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4
FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-011500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.   

$$

PKZ140-011500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-011500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Aug 31, 5:14 AM AKDT, 10 hours 46 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
514 AM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE DOMINANT CENTER OF ACTION ON THE WEATHER MAP THIS MORNING IS
CURRENTLY STATIONARY OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA. THIS LOW IS
ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL JET STREAKS ON BOTH THE UPSTREAM AND
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THIS
LOW ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TOWARDS
MAINLAND ALASKA AND WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...OUT TOWARDS
KAMCHATKA LOW PRESSURE IS CONSOLIDATING AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN BERING LATER TODAY AND THEN TO THE EASTERN BERING BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE STRENGTHENING TO 984 MB.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FROM MONDAY
ONWARD...MODELS CONTINUE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH SOME
RELATIVELY MINOR SPATIAL AND SPEED DISCREPANCIES IN THE PRIMARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE GFS WAS PREFERRED FROM THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED THEREAFTER. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT ALL OF THE PRIMARY GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND TURNAGAIN ARM
FOR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED PERIODS OF
RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER ALL OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE LOWER COOK
INLET SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A PROLONGED
BARRIER JET ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND EXTENDING INTO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE SURFACE FEATURES BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
TO BRISTOL BAY. TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT
RAIN PERSIST WITH SUPPORT ALOFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE PERSISTS MAINLY VFR CEILINGS WITH THE OCCASIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWER. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INLAND FROM THE WEST LATER
TODAY AND BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE REGION
BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

A WARM FRONT ORGANIZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING WILL ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST ALONG SAID FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GALES
DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ISLANDS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO OCCLUDE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING STRONG WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM ONCE
AGAIN. AFTER THAT...A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH LATE WEEK. MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING A POTENT SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK BY
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK THAT WOULD BRING A POTENTIAL EARLY-SEASON
CHINOOK EVENT TO ANCHORAGE. IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT
THIS AS OF YET...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...120 125 172 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29/CC AUG 12

In the hours before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
230 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

AKZ145-012230-

A VERY MOIST NORTH PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN DURING THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS
LIKELY THROUGH LABOR DAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CAUSE WATER LEVELS IN RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS TO RISE QUICKLY.

WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY HIGH FROM RECENT RAIN...AND SOIL
IS NEARLY SATURATED.

PEOPLE INVOLVED WITH OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY RISING WATER LEVELS. BE
PREPARED TO QUICKLY MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED RIVERS AND STREAMS. TURN AROUND DON'T
DROWN.

THIS STATEMENT WILL NOT BE UPDATED UNLESS CONDITIONS CHANGE.

DS

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.