Small Craft Advisory 70, NWS Anchorage, AK

317 
FZAK51 PAFC 250044
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251500-
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 964 MB LOW 140 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL WEAKEN TO 980 MB NEAR
MONTAGUE ISLAND WED AFTERNOON THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
WEAKEN TO 998 MB THU AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-251500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING W 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...SW WIND 35 KT. NORTH OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT SW 30 KT NORTH OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-251500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-251500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-251500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 6 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
55 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-251500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 60 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 60 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-251500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTH OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 50 KT EXCEPT W 40 KT NORTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 16
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-251500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-251500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. W WIND 25 KT SOUTH
END OF THE INLET. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT W WIND 25 KT SOUTH END OF THE
INLET. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT W WIND 25 KT SOUTH END OF
THE INLET. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT.  
$$

PKZ141-251500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 24 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST MON JAN 23 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NAM MODELS HAS INITIALIZED MUCH BETTER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST SOLUTION FOR THE
GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST.
AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND CENTRAL
MAINLAND. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS AND AT SURFACE
OVER THE WESTERN BERING. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAIN OVER
THE GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL TURN NORTH INTO THE WESTERN
GULF TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN TURN NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WILL WEAKEN INTO A RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE
ONTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY THIS EVENING. AREAS OF SNOW WILL MOVE
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS EVENING THEN
CHANGE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
TURN NORTHWEST TO NEAR MONTAGUE ISLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A COLD NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST HAS CREATED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE PRODUCED WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 25 BELOW AND 50 BELOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY.

.BERING SEA...THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND NORTHWEST
CANADA FRIDAY. THE SURFACE WILL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN THE
THE GULF LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL WEAK
AND MOVE BACK INTO CENTRAL SIBERIA BY FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST.
MARINE...GALES 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 12