Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 53, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST MON JAN 23 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NAM MODELS HAS INITIALIZED MUCH BETTER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST SOLUTION FOR THE
GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST.
AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND CENTRAL
MAINLAND. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS AND AT SURFACE
OVER THE WESTERN BERING. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAIN OVER
THE GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL TURN NORTH INTO THE WESTERN
GULF TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN TURN NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WILL WEAKEN INTO A RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE
ONTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY THIS EVENING. AREAS OF SNOW WILL MOVE
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS EVENING THEN
CHANGE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
TURN NORTHWEST TO NEAR MONTAGUE ISLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A COLD NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST HAS CREATED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE PRODUCED WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 25 BELOW AND 50 BELOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY.

.BERING SEA...THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND NORTHWEST
CANADA FRIDAY. THE SURFACE WILL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN THE
THE GULF LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL WEAK
AND MOVE BACK INTO CENTRAL SIBERIA BY FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST.
MARINE...GALES 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 12