Small Craft Advisory 698, NWS Anchorage, AK

277 
FZAK52 PAFC 011524 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
725 AM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012

UPDATE TO ZONES 165 AND 171.

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-020300-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 991 MB LOW 150 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WEAKENS TO 997 MB
TUE AFTERNOON NEAR THE BERING STRAIT AND CONTINUES MOVING NORTH. A
995 MB LOW 110 NM SOUTH OF ATKA WEAKENS TO 998 MB TUE AFTERNOON NEAR
NUNIVAK ISLAND AND THEN DISSIPATES. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW INTENSIFIES
TO 972 MB TUE MORNING 150 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA AND THEN WEAKENS TO
979 MB TUE NIGHT 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF ATKA.
$$

PKZ150-020300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-020300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT W OF THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT BUILDING TO 15 FT W OF THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-020300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W OF 160W...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. E OF 160 W...S WIND 20
KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W OF 160W...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. E OF 160W...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-020300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
725 AM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-020300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...S
WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...S WIND 30
KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. RAIN. S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...S
WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING
TO 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-020300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...BERING SIDE...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...S WIND 25 KT
BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-020300-
UNALASKA BAY
725 AM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-020300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-020300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-020300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BERING SIDE...15 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-020300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 25 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW 15 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-020300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
145 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACRS INTR AK NICELY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
SUN EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COLDER NIGHT MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
ALASKA RANGE. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW THE AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/FOG TO BE
MORE WDSPRD THAN WAS SEEN SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
IN THE USUAL COLD AREAS OF SCNTRL AK AND EASILY DROP BELOW 20F IN ZONE
141, DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SKIES CLEAR. SEPTEMBER RECORD FOR
ANCHORAGE IS 19 SET IN 1992. SCIENCE CENTER WAS 21 SUN MORNING. WITH THE
CURRENT LOCATION OF THE PAFC SITE, THAT RECORD IS SAFE.

PRECIPITATION FROM THE BERING SEA FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COAST SUN MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM LOOK ON THE MARK
BY SLIDING PRECIP INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE SOUTHWESTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT. I DON'T XPECT ANY SIG SNOW AMOUNTS SINCE MILD SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE SNOW TO RAIN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD UPPER LOW IN THE GULF WILL KICK EASTWARD TO NEAR YAKUTAT BY AROUND
MID NIGHT TAKING THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT. PLACES LIKE NEBESNA MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

UPPER TROF DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING WILL HOOK UP
WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN WHAT IS NOW A
COMPLEX BUT WEAK SURFACE LOW BETWEEN 42N AND 48N NEAR 170W. THE LACK OF
COLD AIR WILL KEEP THIS SYSTEM FROM DEEPENING INTO TOO BIG OF A STORM.
THE GFS MOVES A 991 MB CENTER TO 80 NM WEST OF NIKOLSKI MON AFTERNOON.
35 TO 45 KT WINDS OVER THE FOX ISLANDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM.  LOW
THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD BRISTOL BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

990 MB TROPICAL STORM NEAR 44N 150E MOVES TO 495 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND STILL POSSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. FROM THIS
POINT ON IT GRADUALLY BECOMES EXTRA TROPICAL, AND STRENGTHENS AS IT
TRACKS EAST JUST SOUTH OF 50N. AS THE 977 MB CENTER CLOSES IN ON 174W IT
BEGINS TO TAKE A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND ALSO MOVES TO 80 NM WEST OF
NIKOLSKI WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IN TIME ONLY MINIMUM GALES FOR
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SINCE THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS BACK IN THE
WESTERN BEING SEA AND RUSSIA. BUT THAT COULD CHANGE.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AREAS EAST OF 152W WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH SUNSHINE
UNDER UPPER HIGH PRESSURE. WEST OF 152W CONDITIONS WILL BECOME CLOUDIER,
WETTER AND WINDIER ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNG TO BECOME ADVISORY FOR KENAI LAKE.
MARINE...SEE MARINE FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER...NOTHING.

DPERCY SEP 12