Gale Warning 699, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 302323 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

CORRECTED TYPO

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011500-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 989 MB LOW NEAR 425 NM SOUTHWEST OF GAMBLE WEAKENS TO 998 MB 240 NM
NORTH OF GAMBELL TUE AFTERNOON. A 991 MB LOW MOVES TO 80 NM WEST OF
NIKOLSKI MON AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKENS TO 998 MB AS IT MOVES TO
105 NM SOUTH OF MEKORYUK TUE AFTERNOON. A 984 MB LOW 485 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SHEMYA MON AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 170 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK AT 974
MB TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-011500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-011500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-011500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-011500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF SEGUAM
ISLAND...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-011500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 20 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-011500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
145 PM AKDT SUN SEP 30 2012

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACRS INTR AK NICELY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
SUN EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COLDER NIGHT MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
ALASKA RANGE. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW THE AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/FOG TO BE
MORE WDSPRD THAN WAS SEEN SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
IN THE USUAL COLD AREAS OF SCNTRL AK AND EASILY DROP BELOW 20F IN ZONE
141, DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SKIES CLEAR. SEPTEMBER RECORD FOR
ANCHORAGE IS 19 SET IN 1992. SCIENCE CENTER WAS 21 SUN MORNING. WITH THE
CURRENT LOCATION OF THE PAFC SITE, THAT RECORD IS SAFE.

PRECIPITATION FROM THE BERING SEA FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COAST SUN MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM LOOK ON THE MARK
BY SLIDING PRECIP INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE SOUTHWESTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT. I DON'T XPECT ANY SIG SNOW AMOUNTS SINCE MILD SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE SNOW TO RAIN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD UPPER LOW IN THE GULF WILL KICK EASTWARD TO NEAR YAKUTAT BY AROUND
MID NIGHT TAKING THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT. PLACES LIKE NEBESNA MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

UPPER TROF DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING WILL HOOK UP
WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN WHAT IS NOW A
COMPLEX BUT WEAK SURFACE LOW BETWEEN 42N AND 48N NEAR 170W. THE LACK OF
COLD AIR WILL KEEP THIS SYSTEM FROM DEEPENING INTO TOO BIG OF A STORM.
THE GFS MOVES A 991 MB CENTER TO 80 NM WEST OF NIKOLSKI MON AFTERNOON.
35 TO 45 KT WINDS OVER THE FOX ISLANDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM.  LOW
THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD BRISTOL BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

990 MB TROPICAL STORM NEAR 44N 150E MOVES TO 495 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND STILL POSSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. FROM THIS
POINT ON IT GRADUALLY BECOMES EXTRA TROPICAL, AND STRENGTHENS AS IT
TRACKS EAST JUST SOUTH OF 50N. AS THE 977 MB CENTER CLOSES IN ON 174W IT
BEGINS TO TAKE A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND ALSO MOVES TO 80 NM WEST OF
NIKOLSKI WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IN TIME ONLY MINIMUM GALES FOR
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SINCE THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS BACK IN THE
WESTERN BEING SEA AND RUSSIA. BUT THAT COULD CHANGE.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AREAS EAST OF 152W WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH SUNSHINE
UNDER UPPER HIGH PRESSURE. WEST OF 152W CONDITIONS WILL BECOME CLOUDIER,
WETTER AND WINDIER ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNG TO BECOME ADVISORY FOR KENAI LAKE.
MARINE...SEE MARINE FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER...NOTHING.

DPERCY SEP 12