Small Craft Advisory 673, NWS Anchorage, AK

037 
FZAK51 PAFC 221757 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
945 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

UPDATED 121

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-230300-
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 977 MB LOW 420 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL MOVE TO 30 NM SOUTH OF HOMER
AT 995 MB SUN MORNING THEN MOVE ASHORE NEAR SEWARD AT 1005 MB SUN
EVENING.
$$

PKZ120-230300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT E 45 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-230300-
RESURRECTION BAY
945 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-230300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT DURING THE MORNING. NEAR
HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE...GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT TOWARDS MORNING. NEAR
HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE...GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-230300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-230300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS
AND PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-230300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT EXCEPT W 25 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-230300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT...GUSTING TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-230300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-230300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

584 
FZAK51 PAFC 222310
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231500-
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 983 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 30 NM SOUTH OF
HOMER AT 995 MB SUN MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND NEAR SEWARD AT 1005 MB
SUN EVENING. A 987 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT MON MORNING WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-231500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 45 KT
DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-231500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND BECOMING N 15 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 3
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-231500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-231500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
STRONGER GUSTS 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-231500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-231500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-231500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-231500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 30 KT
IN THE EARLY EVENING. S OF KALGIN ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE
25 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FOOT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-231500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

386 
FZAK51 PAFC 222329 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA...CORRECTION
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

CORRECTION FOR HEADLINE ZONE 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231500-
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 983 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 30 NM SOUTH OF
HOMER AT 995 MB SUN MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND NEAR SEWARD AT 1005 MB
SUN EVENING. A 987 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT MON MORNING WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-231500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 45 KT
DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-231500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND BECOMING N 15 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 3
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-231500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-231500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
STRONGER GUSTS 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-231500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-231500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-231500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-231500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 30 KT
IN THE EARLY EVENING. S OF KALGIN ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE
25 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FOOT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-231500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

477 
FZAK51 PAFC 231126
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-240300-
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 989 MB LOW 65 NM EAST OF KODIAK MOVES INLAND OVER THE WESTERN 
KENAI PENINSULA LATE THIS MORNING WHILE WEAKENING TO 995 MB. A
RESIDUAL 1001 MB LOW FORMS 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE SUN NIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST
GULF MON NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-240300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-240300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-240300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-240300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-240300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-240300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-240300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-240300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-240300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

413 
FZAK51 PAFC 232315
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-241500-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1001 MB LOW 40 NM SOUTHWEST OF SEWARD WILL DISSIPATE AND MOVE
INLAND SUN EVENING. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GULF MONDAY EVENING AND REACH THE NORTH GULF COAST TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-241500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE
WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-241500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BY
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-241500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT E OF NAKED ISLAND. WIND
BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-241500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-241500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO E 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-241500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-241500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONGER GUSTS 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING AND
DECREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-241500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-241500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 60 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST. THIS CONSENSUS INCLUDES A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SLOWLY WEAKENING AND MOVING
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN KENAI BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE
NAM WEAKENS THE UPPER LOW INTO AN OPEN WAVE A BIT SOONER THAN THE
GFS/EC/GEM SOLUTIONS. SIMILARLY...THE GFS AND EC AGREE ON A COMPLEX
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY...WHILE THE NAM SEEMS TO PHASE MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES INTO A
CONSOLIDATED LOW CENTER. IN BOTH CASES THE NAM WAS DISCARDED AND A
GFS/EC COMBO WAS USED IN THE PREPARATION OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY IS A LARGE
VERTICALLY STACKED 975 MB LOW CURRENTLY ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS LOW HAD BEEN HEADING TO THE EAST AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO CURVE NORTHWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS A PERSISTENT RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST OF CANADA. FURTHER NORTH...A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE THAT RACED NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA OVERNIGHT AND
BROUGHT ANCHORAGE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOW APPROACHING THE
BROOKS RANGE. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE...CLOUDS ARE FILLING BACK INTO THE REGION AS BROAD
SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF. MEANWHILE...ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING. STEADY RAIN HAS
MOVED BACK INTO THE SEWARD AREA AND IS SPREADING INLAND. AS THIS
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE BIG DIFFERENCE
FROM PREVIOUS STORMS WILL BE THAT JET STREAM IS COMING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST IN PREVIOUS STORMS. THIS
IS A MUCH MORE TYPICAL PATTERN FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AND ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN AREAS OF FAVORED
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND WESTERN SUSITNA
VALLEYS. BECAUSE THERE IS STILL A TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED WITH THIS
LOW...EXPECT ENOUGH DEPTH OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO ALLOW SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO MAKE IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM KENAI TO ANCHORAGE AND
THE MATANUSKA VALLEY DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO AN OPEN WAVE THAT
MOVES UP COOK INLET. THIS MAY ONCE AGAIN CREATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVIER RAIN THAT AFFECTS EVEN THE PROTECTED DOWNSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS
ANCHORAGE.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE SPREAD OF STEADY RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. WITH LOW MOVING
TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA A PERSISTENT BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY...THE
DELTA...AND THE EASTERN ALASKA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ALSO
EXPECT THAT VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE LOW NEARS KODIAK
ISLAND. FURTHER WEST...A WEAK LOW NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
SLOWLY GAIN STRENGTH AS IT HEADS EAST ALONG THE CHAIN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A OVERLY SIGNIFICANT LOW...WITH A SHORT
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH.
IRONICALLY...THIS RELATIVELY WEAK LOW WILL BE WHAT FINALLY USHERS IN
A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN BY MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT EXTREMELY ACTIVE WEATHER TO ALASKA
OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS WILL COME TO AN END THIS WEEK. THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH IN THE BERING SEA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD...WITH THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL SHIFT ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE PANHANDLE...WHILE DRIER AND
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER OVERTAKES MAINLAND ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING 111 121 125 131 135 145
         FLOOD ADVISORY 101 141
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120
         GALE WARNING 125 130 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 171 176 180

FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DIXON SEP 12