Small Craft Advisory 672, NWS Anchorage, AK

785 
FZAK52 PAFC 221149
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-230300-
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 976 MB LOW 330 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT WILL MOVE TO NEAR KODIAK
TONIGHT AT 989 MB AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. A 996 MB LOW 240 NM
WEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 180 NM EAST OF SHEMYA AT 991 MB SUN
MORNING AND THEN TO 150 NM NORTH OF ATKA AT 986 MB SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-230300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 50
KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 50
KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-230300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
15 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT W OF THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-230300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. E OF 160W...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-230300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-230300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-230300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT W OF DUTCH HARBOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT W OF DUTCH HARBOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-230300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-230300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-230300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-230300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 11
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-230300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-230300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

909 
FZAK52 PAFC 222254
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-231500-
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 983 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT WILL MOVE TO NEAR KODIAK
TONIGHT AT 990 MB AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. A 995 MB LOW NEAR
ATTU WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK AT 990 MB SUN MORNING AND
THEN TO 200 NM EAST OF ADAK AT 987 MB MON AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-231500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-231500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-231500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-231500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-231500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-231500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-231500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-231500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-231500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-231500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT EXCEPT NW 30 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 16 FT
EXCEPT 9 FT FROM SHEMYA W. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-231500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-231500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
525 AM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDS THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...WITH A
STRONG RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
REMAINS IN DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND INTO ANCHORAGE AND THE
MAT-SU VALLEY HAS GIVEN WAY TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR
TEMPORARILY WORKS INTO THE AREA BEHIND A SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW
LIFTING INTO THE INTERIOR. RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. ELSEWHERE...A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 45N
160W CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PACIFIC.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
NAM DIFFERING SLIGHTLY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LARGE NORTHERN
PACIFIC LOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA IN THE
VICINITY KODIAK ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING...WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE NAM SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER IN THAT IT MOVES
THE SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK WILL SEE A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION
AND PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE SUNSHINE TODAY AS TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES THROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE...ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL PERSIST ALONG THE GULF COAST IN
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE REST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. STRONG WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG THE TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE TODAY AS
THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH...WITH RAIN MOVING BACK IN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CHAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A PATTERN CHANGE MAY BE IN STORE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
DOMINATING THE BERING SEA SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA...WHICH WOULD LIKELY KEEP SOUTHERN ALASKA COOL AND WET INTO
THE EXTENDED TERM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING 111 121 125 131 135 145
         FLOOD ADVISORY 101 141
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120
         GALE WARNING 125 130 132 140 155 160 170 175 176 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CB SEP 12