Small Craft Advisory 668, NWS Anchorage, AK

763 
FZAK51 PAFC 202354
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-211500-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM AIMED AT THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A 979 MB LOW
WILL MOVE TO 450 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ120-211500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT E OF HINCHINBROOK ISLAND...SE WIND
40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-211500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-211500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT E OF NAKED ISLAND...SE WIND 40 KT
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONGER GUSTS 45 OUT OF EASTERN BAYS AND PASSES BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-211500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2
FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-211500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 3 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-211500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-211500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-211500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-211500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 19 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS COVERING THE BERING SEA...WITH MAINLAND ALASKA
CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE FAR
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO
MUCH OF THE MAINLAND...BRINGING ABUNDANT RAINFALL FROM BRISTOL BAY
EASTWARD TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR. WIND IS
THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN TODAY...AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY AND A HIGH OVER THE ALASKA PANHANDLE
INCREASES TODAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FIRST SYSTEM...HOWEVER THERE
ARE BIGGER DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINLAND. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THE TRACK OF THAT LOW IS
THAT THE GFS IS LAGGING BEHIND AS IT KEEPS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
FARTHER WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MORE LIKELY CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD...MAKING A NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION MORE PLAUSIBLE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PEAK WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN
ARM WILL REMAIN AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...SO WILL THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL THEREFORE DIMINISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
KENAI PENINSULA AND ANCHORAGE BOWL TONIGHT...AND AFFECT AREAS SUCH AS
VALDEZ AND CORDOVA THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COOK INLET AREA ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE AS
HEAVY AS THE RAINFALL SEEN TODAY.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE MAIN RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
WILL BE LIMITED TO ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A LARGE LOW WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN
BERING SEA AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS
AND PRECIPITATION WITH IT. ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE ALEUTIANS DURING THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN ACTIVE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE BERING AND
SUPPORT A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE BERING AND GULF
COAST. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH HAVE BEEN SEEN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE SOME LOCATIONS ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS ARE RECEIVING AS MUCH AS 0.6 TO 0.7 INCH PER HOUR. THIS
BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD...BRINGING
THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO LOCATIONS SUCH AS VALDEZ AND CORDOVA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE ALONG THE ENTIRE GULF COAST AS
WELL AS THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE AREA AND SUSITNA VALLEY AS LONG AS THIS
TROPICAL CONNECTION CONTINUES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...101 125
         FLOOD WARNING... 125 131 135
         FLOOD WATCH...121 125
MARINE...GALE...120 125 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

SCHRECK