Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2012

Small Craft Advisory 667, NWS Anchorage, AK

September 20, 2012

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this small craft advisory at Sep 20, 2012, 4:00 AM AKDT. It was in force for 24 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 20, 2012, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)
Expired
Sep 21, 2012, 4:00 AM AKDT
In force
24 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

963 
FZAK52 PAFC 201107
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-210300-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 988 MB LOW 240 NM SOUTH OF ATKA WILL MOVE TO 450 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR AT 980 MB THU EVENING AND THEN TO 330 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK AT
981 MB FRI NIGHT. A 997 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT WILL
MOVE TO 90 NM WEST OF KODIAK AT 1000 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
MOVE INLAND.

$$

PKZ150-210300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF
CHIRIKOF ISLAND...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING E WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-210300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-210300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-210300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-210300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT.  N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING N
20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-210300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT SEAS 8 FT. BERING SIDE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. BERING SIDE...N WIND 20 FT. SEAS 5
FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-210300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-210300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. BERING SIDE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS
5 FT.  
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. BERING SIDE...N WIND 15 KT.  SEAS
5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-210300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-210300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-210300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-210300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$
3 follow-up statements
692 
FZAK52 PAFC 202351
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-211500-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL DRIFT
EAST TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRIDAY AND WEAKEN SATURDAY. A 1003 MB
LOW NEAR 49N 155E WILL STRENGTHEN TO 998 MB AND MOVE TO AROUND 350 NM
WEST OF SHEMYA FRI AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB MOVE
NEAR SHEMYA SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ150-211500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT. E OF CHIRIKOF
ISLAND...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-211500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 14
FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-211500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT W OF
160W. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W OF 160W...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. E OF 160W...NW WIND 20
KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-211500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-211500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT S OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-211500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. 
.FRI...BERING SIDE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...N WIND
30 KT...SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NW 25 KT W OF DUTCH HARBOR. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-211500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-211500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 6 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS
8 FT.  
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT
EXCEPT 6 FT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND. 
.SAT...W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-211500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-211500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-211500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS 6 FT EXCEPT 3 FT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-211500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$
203 
FZAK52 PAFC 210135 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

CORRECTED ZONE 155

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-211500-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL DRIFT
EAST TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRIDAY AND WEAKEN SATURDAY. A 1003 MB
LOW NEAR 49N 155E WILL STRENGTHEN TO 998 MB AND MOVE TO AROUND 350 NM
WEST OF SHEMYA FRI AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB MOVE
NEAR SHEMYA SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ150-211500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT. E OF CHIRIKOF
ISLAND...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-211500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 14
FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-211500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT W OF
160W. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W OF 160W...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. E OF 160W...NW WIND 20
KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-211500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-211500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT S OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-211500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. 
.FRI...BERING SIDE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...N WIND
30 KT...SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NW 25 KT W OF DUTCH HARBOR. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-211500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-211500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 6 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS
8 FT.  
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT
EXCEPT 6 FT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND. 
.SAT...W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-211500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-211500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-211500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS 6 FT EXCEPT 3 FT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-211500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 20 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$
425 
FZAK52 PAFC 211144
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-220300-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 978 MB LOW 480 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTHEAST
OF SAND POINT TONIGHT AT 979 MB AND THEN TO 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK
AT 990 MB SAT NIGHT. A 997 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SHEMYA THIS EVENING AND THEN TO 150 NM EAST OF SHEMYA AT 991 MB SAT
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-220300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-220300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 15
FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-220300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 
BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. E OF 160W...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-220300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-220300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT S OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 6 FT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT EXCEPT 30 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-220300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...PACIFIC SIDE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. BERING SIDE...N
WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT 
.TONIGHT...PACIFIC SIDE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. BERING SIDE...N
WIND 30 KT.  SEAS 9 FT.  
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT EXCEPT NW 30 KT FROM DUTCH HARBOR E. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-220300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-220300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW 20 KT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS
9 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND. 
.SAT...E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.  W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-220300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-220300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-220300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS
4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-220300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 21 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Sep 19, 4:00 PM AKDT, 12 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 19, 4:00 PM AKDT, 12 hours before
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 19 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS COVERING THE BERING SEA...WITH MAINLAND ALASKA
CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE FAR
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO
MUCH OF THE MAINLAND...BRINGING ABUNDANT RAINFALL FROM BRISTOL BAY
EASTWARD TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR. WIND IS
THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN TODAY...AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY AND A HIGH OVER THE ALASKA PANHANDLE
INCREASES TODAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FIRST SYSTEM...HOWEVER THERE
ARE BIGGER DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAINLAND. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THE TRACK OF THAT LOW IS
THAT THE GFS IS LAGGING BEHIND AS IT KEEPS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
FARTHER WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MORE LIKELY CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD...MAKING A NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION MORE PLAUSIBLE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PEAK WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN
ARM WILL REMAIN AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...SO WILL THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL THEREFORE DIMINISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
KENAI PENINSULA AND ANCHORAGE BOWL TONIGHT...AND AFFECT AREAS SUCH AS
VALDEZ AND CORDOVA THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COOK INLET AREA ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE AS
HEAVY AS THE RAINFALL SEEN TODAY.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE MAIN RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
WILL BE LIMITED TO ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A LARGE LOW WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN
BERING SEA AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS
AND PRECIPITATION WITH IT. ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE ALEUTIANS DURING THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN ACTIVE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE BERING AND
SUPPORT A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE BERING AND GULF
COAST. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH HAVE BEEN SEEN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE SOME LOCATIONS ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS ARE RECEIVING AS MUCH AS 0.6 TO 0.7 INCH PER HOUR. THIS
BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD...BRINGING
THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO LOCATIONS SUCH AS VALDEZ AND CORDOVA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE ALONG THE ENTIRE GULF COAST AS
WELL AS THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE AREA AND SUSITNA VALLEY AS LONG AS THIS
TROPICAL CONNECTION CONTINUES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...101 125
         FLOOD WARNING... 125 131 135
         FLOOD WATCH...121 125
MARINE...GALE...120 125 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

SCHRECK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 19, 4:00 PM AKDTGale WarningAFC3 days
Sep 19, 4:00 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC24 hr
Sep 19, 4:00 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC60 hr
Sep 19, 5:45 PM AKDTAreal Flood WarningAFC6 days
Sep 20, 1:58 AM AKDTAreal Flood AdvisoryAFC19 hr
Sep 20, 4:00 AM AKDTGale WarningAFC60 hr
Sep 20, 4:00 AM AKDTGale WarningAFC3 days
Sep 20, 4:00 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC12 hr
Sep 20, 10:02 AM AKDTAreal Flood WarningAFC10 days
Sep 20, 3:29 PM AKDTAreal Flood WarningAFC3 hr
Sep 20, 3:55 PM AKDTAreal Flood AdvisoryAFC42 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.