Small Craft Advisory 655, NWS Anchorage, AK

884 
FZAK52 PAFC 151150
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-160300-
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 999 MB LOW 145 NM NORTH OF COLD BAY WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING. A PACIFIC LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT AT 995 MB WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TO 80 NM NORTHWEST OF COLD BAY AT 976 MB LATE SAT
NIGHT...THEN MOVE ONSHORE NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM SUN AFTERNOON. A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL MOVE TO 400 NM NORTHWEST OF
SHEMYA AT 997 MB SAT AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TO 130 NM NORTHWEST OF
ADAK AT 988 MB SUN NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-160300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-160300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS EAST...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. WEST OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...
EAST WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-160300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT BECOMING SW IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-160300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM PORT
MOLLER E...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT WITH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-160300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ170-160300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...BERING SIDE...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-160300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-160300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. EAST OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-160300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-160300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM SHEMYA
WEST...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-160300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N
WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT EAST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 25 KT WEST OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ179-160300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A FAIRLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW EXISTS AT THE MOMENT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ARE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW.
THE FIRST WEAK TROUGH IS SPREADING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL. THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WITH A WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION. FURTHER OUT WEST A COUPLE FEATURES OF INTEREST
ARE TAKING SHAPE WITH HUGE FORECAST IMPLICATIONS. THE FIRST...A
POTENT SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE SECOND...A DEEP
COLD CORE UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN BERING THIS
MORNING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE COMING TOGETHER ON A SOLUTION FOR THE IMPENDING STRONG LOW
THIS WEEKEND. SOME SPREAD STILL EXISTS AS FAR AS STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE LOW THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS IS A
STRONG SUB-985 MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ALASKAN PENINSULA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A MORE NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AND HENCE SLOWER SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM A MORE
NEUTRAL TILT AND FASTER SOLUTION THAT DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INLAND.
BOTH THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE
AMERICAN MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TROUGH ORIENTATION AND SUBSEQUENT
SURFACE DEVELOPMENT THOUGH BOTH ARE STILL QUICKER MOVING THE LOW INTO
THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE 12Z RUNS TODAY SHOULD BE VERY TELLING ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THE MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS. AS THE
SECOND DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES UP COOK INLET TODAY THESE SHOWERS WILL
GIVE WAY TO A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IN MOST AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STEADY RAIN LIES IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND NORTH GULF COAST
AREAS...THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA...AND COPPER
RIVER BASIN WILL SEE PERIODS OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE TERRAIN AND
DRYING. THIS WEEKEND A VERY STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND WILL BRING A SURGE OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL ALONG WITH VERY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE EXTENT OF
THESE WINDS WILL BECOME MOVE CLEARER AS THE SITUATION
PROGRESSES...BUT TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THEY WILL
REACH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AT THIS POINT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN
INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE KILBUCK
MOUNTAINS...AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES INLAND ALONG WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL AND DISSIPATE. AS THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE ROTATES TO THE NORTH AND SHEARS APART A NEW SYSTEM BEGINS
TO TAKE SHAPE JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKAN PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND. A
COMPACT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC LOOKS TO PHASE
WITH AN INCOMING COLD CORE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DROPPING OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
WHOLE MAINLAND AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHAIN TODAY. AS THIS
LOW MERGES WITH A DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY FOR
THE EASTERN CHAIN. A FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
WESTERN CHAIN OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE EXTENDED PATTERN LOOKS TO BE VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE WITH A STOUT
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDING. GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE
BERING WITH UPPER LOW CENTERS DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
BERING WILL LEAVE MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA IN A DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WHICH IS VERY CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 101 125
MARINE...GALE 130 132 138 150 176 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL SEP 12