Gale Warning 525, NWS Anchorage, AK

485 
FZAK62 PAFC 152348
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-161500-
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 986 MB LOW NEAR 55N 162W WILL MOVE TO 60N 160W AT 974 MB SUN
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH MON. A 990 MB
LOW NEAR 54N 170E SAT NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 51N 176W AT 989 MB MON
AFTERNOON. A 991 MB LOW NEAR 51N 174W SUN AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 57N
167W AT 986 MB MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

281 
FZAK62 PAFC 161128
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 16 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-170300-
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 973 MB LOW NEAR 56N 164W WILL MOVE ASHORE NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH THROUGH MON. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON
MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 16 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. N OF 57N...E WIND 20 KT.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 16 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 16 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 2O TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 16 2012

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

841 
FZAK62 PAFC 162347
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 16 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-171500-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 974 MB LOW NEAR 61N 160W WILL MOVE TO 65N 162W AND WEAKEN T0 980MB
EARLY MON MORNING. A 985 MB LOW NEAR 54N 169E WILL MOVE TO 56N 171W
AT SAME INTENSITY MON AFTERNOON AND TO 60N 166W AT SAME INTENSITY TUE
AFTERNOON. A 974 MB LOW NEAR 61N 160W WILL MOVE TO 65N 162W AND
WEAKEN T0 980MB EARLY MON MORNING. A 985 MB LOW NEAR 54N 169E WILL
MOVE TO 56N 171W MON AFTERNOON AND 60N 166W TUE AFTERNOON AT SAME
INTENSITY. 

$$

PKZ411-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 16 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 16 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 16 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 16 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO
17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT S 20 KT S OF 56N. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW 20 KT W OF 168W. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
510 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AK. A
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER BRISTOL BAY WITH A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. FURTHER WEST...A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
DESPITE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN POSITION AND STRENGTH...MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THE STRONG LOW FORMING IN
THE BERING. GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE UPPER LOW DROPPING JUST SOUTH
OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PHASING WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC BY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG 140 KT BRANCHES OF
THE JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH SIDES OF THE AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
TROUGH. IN RESPONSE...MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND BRING IT INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND ON SUNDAY AS IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK THIS
WEEKEND AS THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST
COAST. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL BE IMPACTED BY A STRONG WIND EVENT
BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG WINDS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...WITH STRONG WINDS THEN SPREADING TO THE LOWER HILLSIDE AND
EAST ANCHORAGE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND TO THE REST OF ANCHORAGE DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO IMPACT MANY AREAS FROM PORTAGE VALLEY ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND ALL THE WAY TO CORDOVA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR COASTAL AREAS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND FOR POTENTIAL
FLOODING AS THE AREA WILL SEE HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AS
THE STRONG BERING LOW APPROACHES. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ASHORE IN THE
VICINITY OF BRISTOL BAY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS AS IT PROGRESSES QUICKLY NORTHWARD.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THEN
OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTHWARD. THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE CHAIN WILL SEE A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
LOW...HOWEVER THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING OFF OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BRINGS RAIN TO THE WESTERN
BERING ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS SUGGEST A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED TERM WITH A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC...LEAVING THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WHICH WOULD FAVOR CONTINUED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125 135
         FLOOD WATCH 125 131 135
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120 125
         GALE WARNING 130 132 140 170 176 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CB SEP 12