Small Craft Advisory 651, NWS Anchorage, AK

760 
FZAK51 PAFC 132352
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 13 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141500-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1007 MB LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF FRI AFTERNOON. A 996 MB
LOW 360 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT FRI NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 100 NM SOUTH OF
CHIGNIK AT 989 MB SAT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-141500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-141500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 13 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-141500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 13 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-141500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 13 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-141500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-141500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-141500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 13 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-141500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 13 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-141500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 13 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUESDAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
430 PM AKDT WED SEP 12 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA...WITH
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE EXTREME NORTHERN GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS IN PLACE
OVER THE BERING SEA...WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW POISED TO MOVE OUT OF
EASTERN RUSSIA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE IN HANDLING THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE BERING.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN BRINGING A STRONG UPPER LOW
INTO THE EASTERN BERING ON SATURDAY...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS SOLUTION REMAINS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OTHER MODELS... BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO NEAR
CAPE NEWENHAM ON SATURDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE ECMWF PLACES THE CENTER
NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE AKPEN IN THE SAME TIMEFRAME.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AK AS THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DEPARTS TO THE EAST. MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE A TEMPORARY BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN OVERHEAD IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE BERING. RAIN WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CHAIN TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM OVER EASTERN RUSSIA PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. RAIN WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE BERING SEA WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY
STRONG WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION IN THE
COMING DAYS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 155 170 172 175 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CB SEP 12