Small Craft Advisory 638, NWS Anchorage, AK

672 
FZAK51 PAFC 092325
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101500-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST WILL
DISSIPATE BY MON MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF MON
NIGHT AND TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUE.
$$

PKZ120-101500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-101500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT GUSTING TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-101500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-101500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-101500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.MON...WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. EAST OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS..SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-101500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-101500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-101500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-101500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS..
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH ANOTHER OVER THE
EXTREME WESTERN BERING. BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AT THE
SURFACE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE EAST OF A LOW THAT IS SOUTH
OF YAKUTAT IN THE EASTERN GULF...WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
BACKSIDE IN THE CENTRAL GULF.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE ARE ONLY
MINOR DIFFERENCES OF THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE
OUT OF PHASE OVER THE BERING BEYOND WEDNESDAY CREATING GREATER
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE FORECAST UTILIZED THE GFS
IN THE SHORT TERM AND HPC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE EASTERN BERING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST ENDING THE RAIN IN THE GULF. THE BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE BERING
WILL AMPLIFY OVER WESTERN ALASKA TODAY WHILE THE LOW BEHIND IT
CONTINUES TO DIG FURTHER SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN ON ITS EASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE EASTERN
BERING BRINGING STRONGER WINDS AND RAIN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE KEEPS THINGS DRY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER
50S THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH A RIDGE
PARKED ACROSS THE AREA. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL TONIGHT AS RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL BY TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A RIDGE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE THE COASTAL AREAS MONDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EASTWARD.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER PERIODS OF
RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGE.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BERING THIS WEEK BRINGING
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THE LONG RANGE
MODELS FORECAST A LESS AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN. MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT FRONT ON THURSDAY
ACROSS THE BERING...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REACH BRISTOL BAY BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FREEZE WARNING 101 111
MARINE...GALES 130 175 176

KH SEP 12