Small Craft Advisory 610, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 312318
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011500-
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 992 MB LOW 125 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU INTENSIFIES TO 987 MB SAT
AFTERNOON 125 NM NORTH OF ADAK. THIS LOW THEN INTENSIFIES TO 985 MB
SUN AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INLAND NEAR PLATINUM.

$$

PKZ150-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-011500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND LESS THAN 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-011500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-011500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-011500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-011500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 25 KT
W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-011500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT THU AUG 30 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN RUSSIA TO THE ALCAN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA. SPOKES
OF ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE CUT-OFF ARE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND KODIAK ISLAND. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS OVER KODIAK
ISLAND WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. A
SECOND LOW IS OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA. A THIRD LOW...WHICH WILL BE
OF IMPORTANCE LATER IN THE FORECAST...IS WEST OF KAMCHATKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. THE LOW WEST OF
KAMCHATKA WILL REACH THE WESTERN BERING FRI MORNING AND THE CENTRAL
BERING SAT AFTERNOON...WITH A ZONALLY ORIENTED FRONT ALONG 55N. THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING WILL SLIDE INTO SW
ALASKA BY SAT AFTERNOON. IN THE EAST...THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF WILL PIVOT AND REACH THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST ON FRI. THE
ASSOCIATED LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF FRI AND SAT. THE FORECAST THROUGH
SAT INCORPORATES THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION.

AFTER 60 HOURS THERE IS RIDGE BUILDING IN THE EAST...BUT THE MODELS
DIVERGE IN HOW THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING MIGRATES EAST. THE
FORECAST UTILIZES AN HPC COMPROMISE SOLUTION...WHICH BRINGS THE LOW
INTO SW AK ON MON...WITH A SECOND LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BERING IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...SHOWERS WILL BE REPLACED BY STEADY RAIN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL
SPREAD TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY SAT AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR SW AK...RAIN FROM THE GULF FRONT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG THE
AK AND ALEUTIAN RANGES TONIGHT. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVES
MOVING AROUND THE SEWARD PENINSULA LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE KUSKOKWIM ZONES INTO SAT. SOME RAIN WILL REACH SW AK ON SUN AS
THE BERING LOW MOVES EAST.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA...REACHING THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT INTO FRI. AS THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST...RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SOME DRIER AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ON MON AS MOISTURE FROM
THE BERING LOW ARRIVES

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE SECOND LOW WILL BRING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE BERING DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK..WHICH WILL REACH SW AK BY WED. SE OF THE AK
RANGE WILL BE DRY TUE INTO WED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS AUG 12