Gale Warning 510, NWS Anchorage, AK

030 
FZAK51 PAFC 311150
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010300-
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. A 1003 MB LOW FORMS 110 NM SOUTH
OF MIDDLETON ISLAND FRI EVENING AND MOVES INLAND OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA BY MIDDAY SAT AT 1000 MB. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SAT EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. 

$$

PKZ120-010300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT E 40 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT E 35 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND
30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-010300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.TODAY... VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-010300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-010300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-010300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-010300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-010300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-010300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-010300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 312318
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011500-
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1005 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND INTENSIFIES TO 998 MB
SAT MORNING 75 NM EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AND THEN MOVES INLAND. A
WEATHER FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND APPROACHES THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-011500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT SE 35 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT EXCEPT E 25 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-011500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S WIND 10 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING N
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-011500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING E LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-011500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. . 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   

$$

PKZ130-011500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-011500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4
FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-011500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.   

$$

PKZ140-011500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-011500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT THU AUG 30 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN RUSSIA TO THE ALCAN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA. SPOKES
OF ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE CUT-OFF ARE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND KODIAK ISLAND. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS OVER KODIAK
ISLAND WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. A
SECOND LOW IS OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA. A THIRD LOW...WHICH WILL BE
OF IMPORTANCE LATER IN THE FORECAST...IS WEST OF KAMCHATKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. THE LOW WEST OF
KAMCHATKA WILL REACH THE WESTERN BERING FRI MORNING AND THE CENTRAL
BERING SAT AFTERNOON...WITH A ZONALLY ORIENTED FRONT ALONG 55N. THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE BERING WILL SLIDE INTO SW
ALASKA BY SAT AFTERNOON. IN THE EAST...THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF WILL PIVOT AND REACH THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST ON FRI. THE
ASSOCIATED LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF FRI AND SAT. THE FORECAST THROUGH
SAT INCORPORATES THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION.

AFTER 60 HOURS THERE IS RIDGE BUILDING IN THE EAST...BUT THE MODELS
DIVERGE IN HOW THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING MIGRATES EAST. THE
FORECAST UTILIZES AN HPC COMPROMISE SOLUTION...WHICH BRINGS THE LOW
INTO SW AK ON MON...WITH A SECOND LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BERING IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...SHOWERS WILL BE REPLACED BY STEADY RAIN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL
SPREAD TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY SAT AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR SW AK...RAIN FROM THE GULF FRONT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG THE
AK AND ALEUTIAN RANGES TONIGHT. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVES
MOVING AROUND THE SEWARD PENINSULA LOW WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE KUSKOKWIM ZONES INTO SAT. SOME RAIN WILL REACH SW AK ON SUN AS
THE BERING LOW MOVES EAST.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA...REACHING THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT INTO FRI. AS THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST...RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SOME DRIER AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ON MON AS MOISTURE FROM
THE BERING LOW ARRIVES

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE SECOND LOW WILL BRING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE BERING DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK..WHICH WILL REACH SW AK BY WED. SE OF THE AK
RANGE WILL BE DRY TUE INTO WED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS AUG 12