Small Craft Advisory 541, NWS Anchorage, AK

572 
FZAK51 PAFC 022306
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-031500-
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GULF FRI. A DEVELOPING
1009 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR FRI NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 100 
NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK AT 1006 MB SAT AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-031500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-031500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-031500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-031500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-031500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-031500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-031500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-031500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-031500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT WED AUG 1 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA HAS BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALASKA, THE SUSITNA VALLEY, KENAI PENINSULA AND
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA HAS BROUGHT A WIDE AREA OF RAIN INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY. MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BERING
REMAINS CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND FOG. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA CLEARED MOST OF THE CLOUDS WEST OF THE
DATELINE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE GULF AND MAINLAND
ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A STRONG DISAGREEMENT
OVER THE BERING SEA BEYOND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE EC AND NAM ARE IN
FAIRLY AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME WITH THE GFS BEING A STRONG OUTLIER,
THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN VERY POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON ANY OF THE
MODELS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TONIGHT AND WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA,
THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COOK INLET FRIDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
SIBERIA WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN BERING SEA THURSDAY THEN INTO
THE EASTERN BERING FRIDAY.

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF THIS EVENING AND WILL FORCE THE WEATHER FRONT OVER
THE WESTERN GULF NORTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BECOME SHOWERS THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE GUSTY WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST NEAR CORDOVA AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL MOVE ONSHORE
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS EVENING THEN TURN NORTH AND DISSIPATE
OVER NORTON SOUND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND
MOVES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES
WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR FRIDAY.

.BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS...RAIN OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS.
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING
THURSDAY AND INTO WESTERN ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW OVER
SIBERIA WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN BERING THURSDAY THEN WEAKEN INTO
A TROUGH  FRIDAY. GENERALLY CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE BERING THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST
INTO CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING
WILL DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY. AREAS OF RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN GULF SATURDAY AND INTO THE GULF COAST SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 130
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM AUG 12