Small Craft Advisory 540, NWS Anchorage, AK

408 
FZAK52 PAFC 020614 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1015 PM AKDT WED AUG 1 2012

UPDATED ZONE 185

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-021500-
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 992 MB LOW 70 NM SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE INLAND WED
EVENING NEAR TOKSOOK BAY AT 997 MB. A 997 MB LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA
WILL MOVE TO 310 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AT 1004 MB THU
EVENING THEN DISSIPATE LATE THU NIGHT. A 1010 MB LOW 330 NM SOUTHWEST
OF ATTU WILL MOVE TO 230 NM SW OF ADAK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
FRI.
$$

PKZ150-021500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 1 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-021500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 1 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-021500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 1 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-021500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 1 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-021500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 1 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-021500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 1 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-021500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 1 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-021500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 1 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-021500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 1 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.   

$$

PKZ176-021500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 1 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.   

$$

PKZ185-021500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
1015 PM AKDT WED AUG 1 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.

.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-021500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 1 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

352 
FZAK52 PAFC 021144
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-030300-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL INTENSIFY TO 1006 MB THU AFTERNOON 425 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ATTU AND WEAKEN TO 1011 MB 100 NM EAST OF ATKA ON LATE
FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-030300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT SAT NIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-030300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT SAT NIGHT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-030300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-030300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-030300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-030300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
 

$$

PKZ171-030300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2
FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-030300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-030300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-030300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. DENSE FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-030300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT W 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-030300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 2 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT WED AUG 1 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE BERING
SEA THIS MORNING...THE EFFECTS OF WHICH ARE FELT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY NORTH OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND...THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND. A TRIPLE POINT SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE VICINITY OF KING SALMON. THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE BEGINNING TO
SPREAD RAIN OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GULF...ACTING TO INCREASE
THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REVOLVE AROUND A TRIPLE POINT
LOW THAT IS TAKING SHAPE NORTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE EXACT STRENGTH
OF THE LOW...COMBINED WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL RIDGE WILL
DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF THE TURNAGAIN ARM WIND. THE NAM/ECMWF SEEM
TO HANDLE THESE FEATURES THE BEST. GUIDANCE HANDLES THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SIMILARLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES ARISE
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT GETS CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW OVER EASTERN
RUSSIA. ULTIMATELY THE UPPER LOW WILL SINK DOWN INTO THE BERING SEA
BUT THE EXACT LOCATION IS YET TO BE DECIDED UPON WITH GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO DIVERGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS MORNING AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED. INCREASED SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL RAMP UP THE TURNAGAIN ARM WIND AS WELL AS THE KNIK
RIVER WIND THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE
WINDS TO BEND INTO ANCHORAGE WILL COME IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS. ANCHORAGE WILL SEE PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS FIGHT TO OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
OFF THE CHUGACH. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES AND KILLS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHCENTRAL WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SEND PASSING
DISTURBANCES OVERHEAD. THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING INCREASED SOUTHERLY WIND
ALONG THE COPPER RIVER.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER THE MAINLAND
RAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT HAS PASSED COASTAL AREAS
BUT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY OVERHEAD...KEEPING EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND A VERY SHOWERY REGIME. AS
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD IN THE BERING SEA AN
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY KEEPING SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. FRIDAY LOOKS TO HAVE A BREAK FROM THE WET AND WINDY
REGIME AS RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...LARGE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE BERING SEA. MUCH OF THE
STRONGEST FORCING HAS MOVED ASHORE THE MAINLAND BUT THE PRESENCE OF
THE UPPER LOW HANGING AROUND SHOWERS WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND ON THURSDAY USHERING IN QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW
EVENING INTO FRIDAY. A QUICK MOVING LOW WILL SKIRT THE ALEUTIANS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING MORE PERIODS OF RAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REVOLVE AROUND AN UPPER LOW THAT CUTS OFF
FROM THE WESTERLIES OVER EASTERN RUSSIA. THIS LOW WILL DROP INTO THE
BERING SEA AND CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT PROGRESSION OF THE LOW BUT
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS TO MOVE FROM THE BRISTOL BAY REGION INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA BY MID WEEK. SHOULD THAT PATTERN TAKE SHAPE SOME NICER DAYS
ARE IN STORE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 125 130 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL AUG 12