Small Craft Advisory 508, NWS Anchorage, AK

425 
FZAK52 PAFC 191205 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
405 AM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

CORRECTED ZONE 170

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-200300-
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1014 MB LOW 130 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 230 NM WEST OF DUTCH
HARBOR THU NIGHT AT 1011 MB...THEN MOVE TO 45 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT
MOLLER AT 1008 MB FRI NIGHT. A 1010 MB LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST OF
EASTERN RUSSIA 135 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-200300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-200300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-200300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-200300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-200300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-200300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-200300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-200300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-200300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-200300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-200300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-200300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT WED JUL 18 2012

CORRECTED TYPOS

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH DESPITE TENDENCY OF ALL MODELS TO
STRUGGLE WITH PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE WEAK SURFACE FEATURES...
ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. WEATHER DYNAMICS ARE BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE
UPPER LEVELS AND MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. NAM PREFERRED EAST OF 160W FOR DETAIL. GFS PREFERRED OUT WEST
FOR MORE CONSISTENT HANDLING OF LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC.

.UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVELS STILL DOMINATED BY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
ARCTIC WITH MULTIPLE LONG WAVES ROTATING THROUGH ITS BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW. MOST NOTABLE IS A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED CUT OFF LOW
PRESENTLY CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND WHICH SHOULD MOVE
OVER COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA BY FRI EVENING. ALSO SIGNIFICANT IS A
WEAKER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD.
LASTLY...A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CHUKCHI
SEA LATE TONIGHT AND SWING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA
TOMORROW AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS LAST FEATURE
WILL HAVE A STRONG BUT BRIEF IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA TOMORROW.

.SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM FORECAST...

AIRMASS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA GRADUALLY WARMS AND
BEDCOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MOST SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE INTERRUPTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY...AND COPPER RIVER BASIN . MORE
SOUTHERLY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY ADVECT OVER THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND IS RAPIDLY EXITING OUR
AREA OF CONCERN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WHOLE OF KODIAK AND
SOUTHCENTRAL BY MORNING AND SHOULD ACT TO PREVENT MARINE LAYER FROM
WORKING ITS WAY INLAND TONIGHT OR TOMORROW NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA HOLDS ONE MORE
NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AND RECEDING BACK INTO WESTERN RUSSIA BY
FRIDAY EVENING. STRATUS AND FOG ARE PRESENTLY THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WEST OF 160W AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD REMAIN SO INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY.

A 1012 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES NORTH TO NEAR ATKA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WHERE IT BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES MORE WELL ORGANIZED AND CHANGES
DIRECTION...MOVING EAST ALONG THE CHAIN. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING BY TOMORROW
EVENING. LITTLE WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT PLENTY OF RAIN
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY DYNAMIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE COMING WEEK. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
CARRYING ALEUTIAN LOWS DIRECTLY INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA. COMING WEEK
LIKELY TO BE CLOUDY AND RAINY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB JUL 12