Small Craft Advisory 507, NWS Anchorage, AK

788 
FZAK51 PAFC 192315
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201500-
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1006 MB LOW 290 NM SOUTHWEST OF KETCHIKAN WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 1010 MB. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE GULF THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-201500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-201500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
SUBSIDING TO 1 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FT
BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 1 FT BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-201500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-201500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-201500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN 
THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-201500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-201500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT...DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-201500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-201500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

JM

676 
FZAK51 PAFC 201158
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-210300-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUN MORNING. A FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF SAT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-210300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-210300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-210300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-210300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-210300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-210300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-210300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-210300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-210300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT WED JUL 18 2012

CORRECTED TYPOS

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH DESPITE TENDENCY OF ALL MODELS TO
STRUGGLE WITH PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE WEAK SURFACE FEATURES...
ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. WEATHER DYNAMICS ARE BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE
UPPER LEVELS AND MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. NAM PREFERRED EAST OF 160W FOR DETAIL. GFS PREFERRED OUT WEST
FOR MORE CONSISTENT HANDLING OF LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC.

.UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVELS STILL DOMINATED BY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
ARCTIC WITH MULTIPLE LONG WAVES ROTATING THROUGH ITS BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW. MOST NOTABLE IS A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED CUT OFF LOW
PRESENTLY CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND WHICH SHOULD MOVE
OVER COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA BY FRI EVENING. ALSO SIGNIFICANT IS A
WEAKER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD.
LASTLY...A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CHUKCHI
SEA LATE TONIGHT AND SWING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA
TOMORROW AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS LAST FEATURE
WILL HAVE A STRONG BUT BRIEF IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA TOMORROW.

.SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM FORECAST...

AIRMASS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA GRADUALLY WARMS AND
BEDCOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MOST SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE INTERRUPTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY...AND COPPER RIVER BASIN . MORE
SOUTHERLY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY ADVECT OVER THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND IS RAPIDLY EXITING OUR
AREA OF CONCERN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WHOLE OF KODIAK AND
SOUTHCENTRAL BY MORNING AND SHOULD ACT TO PREVENT MARINE LAYER FROM
WORKING ITS WAY INLAND TONIGHT OR TOMORROW NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA HOLDS ONE MORE
NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AND RECEDING BACK INTO WESTERN RUSSIA BY
FRIDAY EVENING. STRATUS AND FOG ARE PRESENTLY THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WEST OF 160W AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD REMAIN SO INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY.

A 1012 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES NORTH TO NEAR ATKA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WHERE IT BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES MORE WELL ORGANIZED AND CHANGES
DIRECTION...MOVING EAST ALONG THE CHAIN. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING BY TOMORROW
EVENING. LITTLE WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT PLENTY OF RAIN
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY DYNAMIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE COMING WEEK. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
CARRYING ALEUTIAN LOWS DIRECTLY INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA. COMING WEEK
LIKELY TO BE CLOUDY AND RAINY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB JUL 12