Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2012

Small Craft Advisory 498, NWS Anchorage, AK

July 15, 2012

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this small craft advisory at Jul 15, 2012, 4:00 PM AKDT. It was in force for 36 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 15, 2012, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)
Expired
Jul 17, 2012, 4:00 AM AKDT
In force
36 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

676 
FZAK51 PAFC 152324
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161500-
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE 
MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH TUE.
$$

PKZ120-161500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT SE WIND 25 KT ALONG THE COAST 
EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND THIS EVENING. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-161500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER 
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-161500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-161500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-161500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE WIND 15 KT W OF THE 
BARREN ISLANDS IN THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 4 FT W OF THE 
BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-161500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-161500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-161500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-161500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$
5 follow-up statements
129 
FZAK51 PAFC 161154
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-170300-
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF TUE AND PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF BY TUE NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-170300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT EXCEPT W 10 KT N OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS 7
FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-170300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-170300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-170300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-170300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-170300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-170300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-170300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-170300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$
000 
FZAK51 PAFC 162041 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

AMENDED ZONE 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-170300-
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF TUE AND PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF BY TUE NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-170300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT EXCEPT W 10 KT N OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS 7
FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-170300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-170300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-170300-
PASSAGE CANAL
1230 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TODAY...WEST WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-170300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-170300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-170300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-170300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-170300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$
294 
FZAK51 PAFC 162259
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171500-
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH WED. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOR ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN GULF COAST ON TUE AND STRENGTHEN ON WED. 

$$

PKZ120-171500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT EXCEPT W 10 KT N OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS 
7 FT EXCEPT 4 FT N OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-171500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-171500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-171500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE 
EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-171500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-171500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-171500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-171500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-171500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$
354 
FZAK51 PAFC 170053 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
450 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171500-
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH WED. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN GULF COAST ON TUE AND STRENGTHEN ON WED. 

$$

PKZ120-171500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT EXCEPT W 10 KT N OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS 
7 FT EXCEPT 4 FT N OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-171500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-171500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-171500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE 
EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-171500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-171500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-171500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-171500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-171500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$
495 
FZAK51 PAFC 171156
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180300-
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK WEATHER FRONT WILL RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. A 1015 MB LOW 210 NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK TUE EVENING MOVES TO
185 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WED AFTERNOON WHILE STRENGTHENING TO 1008
MB...THEN MOVES TO 280 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 1004 MB
WED NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-180300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-180300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-180300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-180300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTER.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-180300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-180300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-180300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-180300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-180300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jul 15, 4:00 PM AKDT, 0 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 4:00 PM AKDT, 0 minutes before
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NUNIVAK
ISLAND AND A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA IS STALLING ITS FORWARD PROGRESS AS IT RUNS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS PATTERN IS ALSO
INCREASING THE 250 MB JET STREAM WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO
AROUND 125 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
A SURFACE LOW THAT WAS NEAR BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING IS WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES INLAND AND WILL BECOME A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA COAST BY THIS EVENING. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED
WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF BUT IS PUSHING A RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE ALEUTIANS TODAY. A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA NEAR THE 45N PARALLEL WILL BE THE FOCUS OF A DEVELOPING LOW
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN HOW A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW
ELONGATING AND A POSSIBLE SECOND CENTER TO THE NORTH DEVELOPING INTO
THE MAIN CENTER. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE IN MODELS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TO CAUSE SOME CONCERN AS THERE IS NEARLY
A 200 MILE DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION OF THE LOW BETWEEN MODELS AT THAT
TIME. THE MODELS DO APPEAR TO IMPROVE AFTER THAT WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BEING THE GFS MODEL MOVING THE LOW EASTWARD FASTER ON
THURSDAY THAN THE ECMWF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS EVENING AND SET THE STAGE FOR A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. BY TUESDAY THERE SHOULD BE
SOME CLEARING AREAS AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL.
IN THE SOUTHWEST THE COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW COMBINED WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RIPE FOR SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND AREAS OF STRATUS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BERING SEA COAST. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND A SURFACE HIGH IN
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA INFLUENCES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS BEGINNING TO GET A
LITTLE MORE TRICKY AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE
SKEWED FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW TOWARD BRISTOL BAY WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT FACTOR AS FAR AS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNT THAT REACHES
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ALSO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUL 12

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 15, 4:00 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC7 days
Jul 16, 4:00 AM AKDTGale WarningAFC12 hr
Jul 16, 4:00 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC3 days

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.