Gale Warning 466, NWS Anchorage, AK

788 
FZAK52 PAFC 162356
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-171500-
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA. A
1010 MB LOW NEAR 390 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO NEAR DILLINGHAM
WED AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ150-171500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-171500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-171500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-171500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-171500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-171500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-171500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-171500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-171500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-171500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-171500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-171500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NUNIVAK
ISLAND AND A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA IS STALLING ITS FORWARD PROGRESS AS IT RUNS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS PATTERN IS ALSO
INCREASING THE 250 MB JET STREAM WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO
AROUND 125 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
A SURFACE LOW THAT WAS NEAR BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING IS WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES INLAND AND WILL BECOME A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA COAST BY THIS EVENING. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED
WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF BUT IS PUSHING A RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE ALEUTIANS TODAY. A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA NEAR THE 45N PARALLEL WILL BE THE FOCUS OF A DEVELOPING LOW
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN HOW A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW
ELONGATING AND A POSSIBLE SECOND CENTER TO THE NORTH DEVELOPING INTO
THE MAIN CENTER. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE IN MODELS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TO CAUSE SOME CONCERN AS THERE IS NEARLY
A 200 MILE DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION OF THE LOW BETWEEN MODELS AT THAT
TIME. THE MODELS DO APPEAR TO IMPROVE AFTER THAT WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BEING THE GFS MODEL MOVING THE LOW EASTWARD FASTER ON
THURSDAY THAN THE ECMWF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS EVENING AND SET THE STAGE FOR A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. BY TUESDAY THERE SHOULD BE
SOME CLEARING AREAS AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL.
IN THE SOUTHWEST THE COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW COMBINED WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RIPE FOR SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND AREAS OF STRATUS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BERING SEA COAST. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND A SURFACE HIGH IN
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA INFLUENCES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS BEGINNING TO GET A
LITTLE MORE TRICKY AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE
SKEWED FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW TOWARD BRISTOL BAY WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT FACTOR AS FAR AS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNT THAT REACHES
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ALSO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUL 12