Small Craft Advisory 49, NWS Anchorage, AK

524 
FZAK52 PAFC 172356
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-181500-
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST ACROSS THE BERING SEA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BERING THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ150-181500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-181500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-181500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 35 KT. 


$$

PKZ165-181500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-181500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-181500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-181500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-181500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-181500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-181500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-181500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-181500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
440 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
TODAY'S UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER ALASKA FEATURES A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
MERIDONAL FLOW FROM THE NORTH. THE RESPONSIBLE RIDGE LIES OVER THE
BERING SEA WITH AN AXIS RUNNING FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC UP THROUGH
THE CHUKCHI PENINSULA. THE RIDGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING CUT
OFF FROM THE JET STREAM TO THE SOUTH BY AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. AT THE SAME
TIME A PIECE OF ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM THE DEEP KAMCHATKA VORTEX OF
THE PREVIOUS WEEK PINCHES THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE TURNING IT INTO
A CUT OFF CLOSED UPPER HIGH. THAT PROCESS WILL ESSENTIALLY LOCK
MAINLAND ALASKA INTO A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN FOR THE TIME
BEING. AT THE SURFACE...VERY HIGH PRESSURE READINGS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ARCTIC AIR OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHES UP
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE...GENERALLY
BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND THE
ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...ALL ESTABLISHING A DIPOLE PATTERN WITH CLOSED HIGH OVER THE
CHUKCHI PENINSULA/BERING SEA AND CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
CANADA/HUDSON BAY. SUCH A PATTERN WILL KEEP A DRY COLD CROSS POLAR
NORTHERLY FLOW AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WEEK. MODEL DISCREPANCIES
ARISE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AS THE RIDGE BECOMES CUT OFF...THE EXACT
POSITION OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AND UPPER LOW CENTERS WHILE NOT
AFFECTING THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL COME MORE INTO PLAY TOWARD THE
MEDIUM RANGE AS ANOTHER LARGE POLAR VORTEX SETS UP OVER MUCH OF
ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...CLEAR COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS AS CLEAR SKIES ALLOW
FOR GOOD SURFACE RADIATIONAL COOLING MAINLY FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
AND EAGLE RIVER AREA. OTHER THAN THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THE ONLY AFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE GUSTY GAP WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE
FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...TEMPERATURES ARE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT MODERATED FROM
THE REST OF THE ARCTIC AIR BY A PERSISTENT DECK OF LOW STRATUS AND
FOG STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH THROUGH THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. CONDITIONS WILL STAY COLD AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WITH MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS...MAINLY FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND WESTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN REMAINS THE MOST ACTIVE
IN TERMS OF WEATHER TODAY. CURRENTLY WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
WORKING NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK WESTWARD FROM ADAK TO SHEMYA FROM THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN BE REPLACED BY A NORTHEASTERLY COLD FLOW SUPPORTING
SNOW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS IN THE COMING WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A VERY STABLE REGIME WILL SET UP LATER THIS WEEK WHEN AS ANOTHER
POLAR VORTEX SHIFTS DOWN OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. COMBINED WITH THE CUT
OFF UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST...THE JET STREAM AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE ALEUTIANS WILL STAY ACTIVE WITH PERIODS
OF SNOW AS THE ARCTIC AIR FORCES SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARMER SEAS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL WILL COME TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
IN THE GULF AND WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO COASTAL REGIONS. THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 138 140 141 150 155 165 179
         GALE 150 155 170 172 175 176 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL JAN 12