Gale Warning 19, NWS Anchorage, AK

368 
FZAK61 PAFC 180016
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-181500-
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. A
SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH
THU. 

$$

PKZ351-181500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-181500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 17 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

925 
FZAK61 PAFC 181243
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-190300-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. A
SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH
THURSDAY. A 970 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR 51N 149W BY FRIDAY MORNING.
$$

PKZ351-190300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-190300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

146 
FZAK61 PAFC 190020
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-191500-
400 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. A
SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH
THU. A 968 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR 51N 148W BY FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-191500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-191500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2012

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

048 
FZAK61 PAFC 191248
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-200300-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. A 964
MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 52N 146W FRI MORNING AND TO 53N 140W AT 956 MB
EARLY SAT MORNING.
$$

PKZ351-200300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-200300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

752 
FZAK61 PAFC 200017
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU JAN 19 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-201500-
400 PM AKST THU JAN 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 964 MB PACIFIC LOW NEAR 51N 148W WILL MOVE TO 55N 134W
SAT AFTERNOON. A 970 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 58N 148W ON SAT.

$$

PKZ351-201500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST THU JAN 19 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-201500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST THU JAN 19 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
440 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
TODAY'S UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER ALASKA FEATURES A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
MERIDONAL FLOW FROM THE NORTH. THE RESPONSIBLE RIDGE LIES OVER THE
BERING SEA WITH AN AXIS RUNNING FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC UP THROUGH
THE CHUKCHI PENINSULA. THE RIDGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING CUT
OFF FROM THE JET STREAM TO THE SOUTH BY AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. AT THE SAME
TIME A PIECE OF ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM THE DEEP KAMCHATKA VORTEX OF
THE PREVIOUS WEEK PINCHES THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE TURNING IT INTO
A CUT OFF CLOSED UPPER HIGH. THAT PROCESS WILL ESSENTIALLY LOCK
MAINLAND ALASKA INTO A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN FOR THE TIME
BEING. AT THE SURFACE...VERY HIGH PRESSURE READINGS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ARCTIC AIR OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHES UP
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE...GENERALLY
BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND THE
ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...ALL ESTABLISHING A DIPOLE PATTERN WITH CLOSED HIGH OVER THE
CHUKCHI PENINSULA/BERING SEA AND CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
CANADA/HUDSON BAY. SUCH A PATTERN WILL KEEP A DRY COLD CROSS POLAR
NORTHERLY FLOW AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WEEK. MODEL DISCREPANCIES
ARISE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AS THE RIDGE BECOMES CUT OFF...THE EXACT
POSITION OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AND UPPER LOW CENTERS WHILE NOT
AFFECTING THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL COME MORE INTO PLAY TOWARD THE
MEDIUM RANGE AS ANOTHER LARGE POLAR VORTEX SETS UP OVER MUCH OF
ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...CLEAR COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS AS CLEAR SKIES ALLOW
FOR GOOD SURFACE RADIATIONAL COOLING MAINLY FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
AND EAGLE RIVER AREA. OTHER THAN THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THE ONLY AFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE GUSTY GAP WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE
FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...TEMPERATURES ARE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT MODERATED FROM
THE REST OF THE ARCTIC AIR BY A PERSISTENT DECK OF LOW STRATUS AND
FOG STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH THROUGH THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. CONDITIONS WILL STAY COLD AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WITH MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS...MAINLY FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND WESTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN REMAINS THE MOST ACTIVE
IN TERMS OF WEATHER TODAY. CURRENTLY WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
WORKING NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK WESTWARD FROM ADAK TO SHEMYA FROM THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN BE REPLACED BY A NORTHEASTERLY COLD FLOW SUPPORTING
SNOW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS IN THE COMING WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A VERY STABLE REGIME WILL SET UP LATER THIS WEEK WHEN AS ANOTHER
POLAR VORTEX SHIFTS DOWN OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. COMBINED WITH THE CUT
OFF UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST...THE JET STREAM AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE ALEUTIANS WILL STAY ACTIVE WITH PERIODS
OF SNOW AS THE ARCTIC AIR FORCES SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARMER SEAS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL WILL COME TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
IN THE GULF AND WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO COASTAL REGIONS. THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 138 140 141 150 155 165 179
         GALE 150 155 170 172 175 176 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL JAN 12