Small Craft Advisory 480, NWS Anchorage, AK

095 
FZAK51 PAFC 121153
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 12 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-130300-
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A STALLING WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL WEAKEN IN PLACE
EARLY THIS EVENING. A 1001 MB LOW 60 NM EAST OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE TO
90 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 1014 MB FRI MORNING AND DISSIPATE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ120-130300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 12 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-130300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 12 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-130300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 12 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 30 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK
ENTRANCE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-130300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 12 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-130300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 12 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SE OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-130300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-130300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 12 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-130300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 12 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-130300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 12 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

068 
FZAK51 PAFC 122343
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 12 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-131500-
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1007 MB LOW 80 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL DISSIPATE 80 NM 
SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND FRI EVENING. THE STALLED WEATHER FRONT
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING. A RIDGE 
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FRI NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-131500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 12 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-131500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 12 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-131500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-131500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT IN THE DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-131500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 12 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SE OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 15 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-131500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 12 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-131500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-131500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-131500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 12 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
520 AM AKDT WED JUL 11 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER-LVL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AND SLOWLY
MOVING EAST. ANOTHER UPPER-LVL LOW IS NEAR KIPNUK AND DRIFTING WEST.
IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES AN UPPER-LVL RIDGE IS BUILDING NORTH
THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS. AT THE
SURFACE...A 993 MB LOW NEAR CHIRIKOF ISLAND IS MOVING NORTH TOWARDS
BRISTOL BAY. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF IS TRACKING
TO THE NORTHERN GULF WITH A SHIELD OF RAIN OVERSPREADING KODIAK
ISLAND UP TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A SQUEEZED PRESSURE GRADIENT
EXISTS BETWEEN THE LOW/FRONT AND A COASTAL NORTHERN GULF
RIDGE...SUPPORTING STRONG EASTERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH FAVORED AREAS
SUCH AS TURNAGAIN ARM...PORTAGE VALLEY AND THE KNIK VALLEY...AND ALSO
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN OF BRISTOL BAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO
ADVANCING TO COASTAL AREAS OF THE GULF.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ACCEPTABLY CAPTURE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES. THE LOW TRACKING
TO BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE TO AROUND 100 MILES WEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM
TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN POSITION BY FRI.
THE OVERNIGHT NAM AND GFS TRENDED WINDS A BIT STRONGER OVER INTERIOR
BRISTOL BAY...WITH 925 MB FLOW FLIRTING WITH 50 TO 60 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IMPLICATIONS OF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
STRONGER ACCELERATED WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN OVER BRISTOL BAY
AND TO SOME EXTENT OVER TURNAGAIN ARM/HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FURTHER
EAST...MODELS DEPICT THE FRONT TRACKING TO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS
EVENING...STALLING OUT AS THE PARENT LOW IN BRISTOL BAY SLOWS TO A
CRAWL...AND WEAKENING IN PLACE THROUGH THU. AS THE UPPER-LOW MEANDERS
NEAR THE SW AK COAST...MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT INTO
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...THOUGH NONE APPEAR
PARTICULARLY STRONG AT THIS TIME. THE MORNING PACKAGE GENERALLY
LEANED ON THE GFS...WITH A TREND TOWARDS GFS/ECMWF BY THE
WEEKEND...AND HPC GUIDANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE HEAVIEST OVERNIGHT RAINS OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL LIGHTEN A BIT AS
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. STEADY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TO EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND UP
TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...WHILE INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL SHOULD
SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS. GALE FORCE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG GULF COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN REACHES
OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...WITH A WEAKENING TREND ON THU. CHANNELED
AREAS FROM THE MATANUSKA VALLEY SOUTHWARD CAN EXPECT COMMENSURATE
STRONG WINDS IN THE EASTERLY FLOW...THOUGH HAVE GONE A BIT HIGHER
ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM/HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON MODEL TREND.
PRECIPITATION NORTH AND WEST OF THE CHUGACH/KENAI RANGES LOOKS TO BE
LARGELY TEMPERED TO A FEW PASSING SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DUE TO THESE
STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS.

SOUTHWEST...
RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AS THE LOW TRACKS TO
JUST SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND TONIGHT. PEAK EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING MAY DOWNSLOPE PRECIPITATION IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF
OF THE ALEUTIAN/ALASKA RANGES...WHILE CONTINUING IN EARNEST OVER
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER WITH UPPER LOW
OFF-SHORE. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
WITH UPPER-LOW MEANDERING NEARBY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHWEST AK...WITH INTERIOR AREAS
SEEING PRECIPITATION TAPERING TO PASSING SHOWERS THU AND FRI.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN REGION REMAINS IN A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN IN
TERMS OF STRONG WEATHER FEATURES. TYPICAL FOG AND STRATUS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE LOOKS TO BE A PACIFIC LOW THAT TRACKS
TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS SAT EVENING. 300 MB JET AMPLIFIES
WITH MID-LVL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN NATURE...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE TO SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL AK.
THIS WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND IN A CLOUDY AND WET
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...120 130 132 138 150 351 352
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MALOY