Small Craft Advisory 474, NWS Anchorage, AK

614 
FZAK51 PAFC 100038 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
435 PM AKDT MON JUL 9 2012

CORRECTED AREA 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101500-
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1012 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TUE. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WED AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-101500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 9 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK
ENTRANCE. WINDS BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-101500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 9 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-101500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 9 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-101500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 9 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
$$

PKZ130-101500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-101500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-101500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-101500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 9 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.

.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-101500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 9 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SW 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

250 
FZAK51 PAFC 101156
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-110300-
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA TUE. A FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
WED MORNING AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY WED EVENING.

$$

PKZ120-110300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-110300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-110300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.

.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-110300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.TODAY...W WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
STRONGER GUSTS 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-110300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-110300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-110300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT DURING THE MORNING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-110300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-110300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

284 
FZAK51 PAFC 110021
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111500-
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EASTERN GULF TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH WED. A 996 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT
WILL MOVE TO 60 NM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM WED NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WED MORNING
AND REACH THE NORTH GULF COAST WED NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-111500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-111500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-111500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. WINDS INCREASING TO E 30 KT IN THE SOUTHERN
SOUND IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT....EXCEPT 6 FT IN THE SOUTHERN
SOUND IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-111500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-111500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-111500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY......

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT E 30 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-111500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-111500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT... NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-111500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 9 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MAIN UPPER LOW RESIDES OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA WITH A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH
BRISTOL BAY TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AND ELONGATE WEST WITH A
SECOND CENTER OVER THE YUKON KUSKOKWIM DELTA TUE. THE WEAK UPPER LOW
SUPPORTING THE STORM NOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE BERING AND MERGE INTO THE UPPER CENTER OVER THE YUKON
KUSKOKWIM DELTA TUE. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL
MOVE ALONG TO THE EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT ELONGATING EAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA THROUGH WED.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
OVERALL THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS BRING THE MODERATE SURFACE LOW TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AREA WED.
WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE MOVEMENT AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AFTER THE
FIRST 72 HOURS AND MATCH UP WELL WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ARE THE
CHOICE IN THE LATTER PERIODS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...THE CONTINUATION OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
GOING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH, THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL BE IN THE CROSS HAIRS OF THE BIGGEST THREAT
FOR RAIN. THE QPF FROM THE NAM BRINGS NEARLY AN INCH TO THE BASIN
TUE. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS IF AND OR HOW MUCH RAIN COMES ACROSS
THE TALKEETNA AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS TO THE MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA
VALLEY AND NORTHERN COOK INLET AND ANCHORAGE LATER TUESDAY.

.SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH BOUNDARY FROM
BRISTOL BAY NORTH ACROSS THE ANIAK AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE
WEST AND SOUTH AS IT DISSIPATES SO THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TO SHOWERS AND TAPER OFF TUE AFTERNOON. THE RAINFALL INTENSITY HAS
DROPPED OFF AND WE HAVE CANCELED THE FLOOD ADVISORIES.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ELONGATING EAST FROM THE BERING STORM AS MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH FROM
IT INTO THE RESIDUAL UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ALASKA LATE WED AND EARLY
THU.

THE FOG OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA HAS FINALLY BEGAN TO MIX OUT AND
SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR AS INCREASED SOUTHEAST AND EAST WIND IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT KEEPS CONDITIONS MIXED ENOUGH.

.ALEUTIANS AND BERING...
INCREASED WIND AND MIXING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN THE
FOG LIFTING IN THE PRIBILOFS AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FOG PROBLEMS IN THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING RAIN AND SOME GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS STILL INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE ACROSS ALASKA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GULF AND A LOW DRIFTING INTO
THE BERING SEA. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED CHANGE AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA BY MID WEEK
AND THE BERING SEA LOW MOVES BACK INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE
BERING LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUL 12