Gale Warning 444, NWS Anchorage, AK

734 
FZAK62 PAFC 101152
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-110300-
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 996 MB LOW AT 53N 177E WILL MOVE TO 51N 165W WED MORNING AT 999
MB AND DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN BERING
WEDNESDAY.

$$

PKZ411-110300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-110300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-110300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-110300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 9 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MAIN UPPER LOW RESIDES OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA WITH A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH
BRISTOL BAY TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AND ELONGATE WEST WITH A
SECOND CENTER OVER THE YUKON KUSKOKWIM DELTA TUE. THE WEAK UPPER LOW
SUPPORTING THE STORM NOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE BERING AND MERGE INTO THE UPPER CENTER OVER THE YUKON
KUSKOKWIM DELTA TUE. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL
MOVE ALONG TO THE EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT ELONGATING EAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA THROUGH WED.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
OVERALL THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS BRING THE MODERATE SURFACE LOW TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AREA WED.
WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE MOVEMENT AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AFTER THE
FIRST 72 HOURS AND MATCH UP WELL WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ARE THE
CHOICE IN THE LATTER PERIODS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...THE CONTINUATION OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
GOING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH, THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL BE IN THE CROSS HAIRS OF THE BIGGEST THREAT
FOR RAIN. THE QPF FROM THE NAM BRINGS NEARLY AN INCH TO THE BASIN
TUE. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS IF AND OR HOW MUCH RAIN COMES ACROSS
THE TALKEETNA AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS TO THE MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA
VALLEY AND NORTHERN COOK INLET AND ANCHORAGE LATER TUESDAY.

.SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH BOUNDARY FROM
BRISTOL BAY NORTH ACROSS THE ANIAK AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE
WEST AND SOUTH AS IT DISSIPATES SO THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TO SHOWERS AND TAPER OFF TUE AFTERNOON. THE RAINFALL INTENSITY HAS
DROPPED OFF AND WE HAVE CANCELED THE FLOOD ADVISORIES.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ELONGATING EAST FROM THE BERING STORM AS MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH FROM
IT INTO THE RESIDUAL UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ALASKA LATE WED AND EARLY
THU.

THE FOG OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA HAS FINALLY BEGAN TO MIX OUT AND
SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR AS INCREASED SOUTHEAST AND EAST WIND IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT KEEPS CONDITIONS MIXED ENOUGH.

.ALEUTIANS AND BERING...
INCREASED WIND AND MIXING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN THE
FOG LIFTING IN THE PRIBILOFS AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FOG PROBLEMS IN THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING RAIN AND SOME GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS STILL INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE ACROSS ALASKA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GULF AND A LOW DRIFTING INTO
THE BERING SEA. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED CHANGE AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA BY MID WEEK
AND THE BERING SEA LOW MOVES BACK INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE
BERING LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUL 12