Small Craft Advisory 46, NWS Anchorage, AK

611 
FZAK52 PAFC 170014
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-171500-
400 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A LOW COMPLEX OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES WEST AND WEAKENS
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST ACROSS THE BERING SEA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$

PKZ150-171500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG
THE COAST. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-171500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-171500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-171500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS 
5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-171500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-171500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 11 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...
SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-171500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT...GUSTING TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-171500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 19 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...
SEAS 25 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 19 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 
25 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-171500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-171500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2012

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-171500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 40 KT. E OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE..W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT. E OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-171500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST MON JAN 16 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 15 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
ALASKA. THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP INTO A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE THAT
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE FORM
MOST OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
INTERIOR OF THE STATE AND WAS ANALYZED AT 1059 MB SUNDAY MORNING.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INTERIOR HIGH AND GULF LOW CONTINUES TO
BE TIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND IS CAUSING SOME GUSTY GAP WINDS IN
THAT AREA.
THERE IS ANOTHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES BETWEEN
THE HIGH OVER THE STATE AND THE LOWS MOVING ALONG THE STORM TRACK
SOUTHWEST OF ATTU.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE DOING WELL OVERALL AND ARE HAVING NO PROBLEMS WITH THE
STABLE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE STATE. ALONG THE STORM TRACK IN
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS WHERE THE DIFFERENCES COME UP.
THE STORM TRACK LOCATION IS AGREED UPON WELL BUT THE TIMING OF THE
WAVES MOVING ALONG THAT BOUNDARY IS UP FOR DEBATE. THE GFS WAS THE
PREFERRED MODEL FOR THIS AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA WILL SEE CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AREAS OF FOG NEAR COOK INLET WILL MOVE IN AND OUT OVERNIGHT
BUT FOG SHOULD BE LESS OF A FACTOR PAST TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE FAVORED CHANNELED AREAS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SUCH AS THOMPSON PASS AND THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. AT THIS
TIME...NO WARNING LEVEL WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED IN ANY AREAS.
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN REGION WILL SEE THE
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. MOST WINDS
WILL BE GALE FORCE...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED STORM FORCE
GUSTS. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...BRINGING PERIODS OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND. IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES WEST WITH IT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BUILDING NORTH PACIFIC WILL BECOME A
CLOSED HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN BERING BY MIDWEEK AND THEN BEGIN TO
SLOWLY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST. AS THIS HAPPENS A DEEP TROUGH OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK TOWARD ALASKA FROM CANADA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COLD NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAINLAND FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AND MAY
EVEN USHER IN WAVES OF EVEN COLDER AIR BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170 171 175 176 179 185.
         STORM 172.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 140 141.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 12