Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 40, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 15 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
ALASKA. THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP INTO A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE THAT
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE FORM
MOST OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
INTERIOR OF THE STATE AND WAS ANALYZED AT 1059 MB SUNDAY MORNING.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INTERIOR HIGH AND GULF LOW CONTINUES TO
BE TIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND IS CAUSING SOME GUSTY GAP WINDS IN
THAT AREA.
THERE IS ANOTHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES BETWEEN
THE HIGH OVER THE STATE AND THE LOWS MOVING ALONG THE STORM TRACK
SOUTHWEST OF ATTU.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE DOING WELL OVERALL AND ARE HAVING NO PROBLEMS WITH THE
STABLE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE STATE. ALONG THE STORM TRACK IN
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS WHERE THE DIFFERENCES COME UP.
THE STORM TRACK LOCATION IS AGREED UPON WELL BUT THE TIMING OF THE
WAVES MOVING ALONG THAT BOUNDARY IS UP FOR DEBATE. THE GFS WAS THE
PREFERRED MODEL FOR THIS AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA WILL SEE CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AREAS OF FOG NEAR COOK INLET WILL MOVE IN AND OUT OVERNIGHT
BUT FOG SHOULD BE LESS OF A FACTOR PAST TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE FAVORED CHANNELED AREAS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SUCH AS THOMPSON PASS AND THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. AT THIS
TIME...NO WARNING LEVEL WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED IN ANY AREAS.
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN REGION WILL SEE THE
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. MOST WINDS
WILL BE GALE FORCE...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED STORM FORCE
GUSTS. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...BRINGING PERIODS OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND. IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES WEST WITH IT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BUILDING NORTH PACIFIC WILL BECOME A
CLOSED HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN BERING BY MIDWEEK AND THEN BEGIN TO
SLOWLY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST. AS THIS HAPPENS A DEEP TROUGH OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK TOWARD ALASKA FROM CANADA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COLD NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAINLAND FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AND MAY
EVEN USHER IN WAVES OF EVEN COLDER AIR BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170 171 175 176 179 185.
         STORM 172.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 140 141.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 12