Small Craft Advisory 455, NWS Anchorage, AK

090 
FZAK52 PAFC 261100
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-270300-
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA ON WED. A
995 MB PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA LATE WED
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-270300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT.GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-270300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-270300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-270300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-270300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-270300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-270300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2
FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-270300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-270300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-270300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-270300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-270300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS A LOW
CENTERED OVER THE BETHEL AREA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND PARK OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FOR A FEW DAYS. THE REST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE
LOW AND OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WHILE A RIDGE IS PUSHING OUT OF
THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THIS IS ALSO PRODUCING
AN ACCELERATION OF THE JET STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND
ALASKA PENINSULA BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND LOW.
AT THE SURFACE THE LOW NEAR SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
THAT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE DIFFERENCE IN MODELS
COMES IN DETECTING AND TIMING THE PROGRESSION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
OUT OF THE YUKON AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THEY ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS BRINGING VERY MOIST SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WHICH IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE AREA. THE COPPER RIVER BASIN IS THE EXCEPTION THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN AREA OF LIFTING IS STILL MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST THERE. THAT WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE
BASIN AS WELL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF AND THEN REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT SLOWLY
WEAKENS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS MAKES MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA
VULNERABLE TO EASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
STEADY RAIN FOLLOWED SOME BREAKS IN THE WEATHER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AS WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
PERSISTS AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUN 12