Small Craft Advisory 454, NWS Anchorage, AK

627 
FZAK51 PAFC 260811 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1210 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

UPDATED 138

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-261500-
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1001 MB LOW 75 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-261500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-261500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-261500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-261500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-261500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-261500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-261500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
1210 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-261500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-261500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

105 
FZAK51 PAFC 261157
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-270300-
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 998 MB LOW 60 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND
WEAKEN TO 1009 MB 200 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY LATE WED NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-270300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT SE 15 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-270300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-270300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-270300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-270300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-270300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-270300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 30
KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-270300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-270300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 25 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS A LOW
CENTERED OVER THE BETHEL AREA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND PARK OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FOR A FEW DAYS. THE REST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE
LOW AND OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WHILE A RIDGE IS PUSHING OUT OF
THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THIS IS ALSO PRODUCING
AN ACCELERATION OF THE JET STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND
ALASKA PENINSULA BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND LOW.
AT THE SURFACE THE LOW NEAR SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
THAT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE DIFFERENCE IN MODELS
COMES IN DETECTING AND TIMING THE PROGRESSION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING
OUT OF THE YUKON AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THEY ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS BRINGING VERY MOIST SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WHICH IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE AREA. THE COPPER RIVER BASIN IS THE EXCEPTION THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN AREA OF LIFTING IS STILL MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST THERE. THAT WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE
BASIN AS WELL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF AND THEN REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT SLOWLY
WEAKENS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS MAKES MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA
VULNERABLE TO EASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF
STEADY RAIN FOLLOWED SOME BREAKS IN THE WEATHER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AS WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
PERSISTS AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUN 12