Small Craft Advisory 415, NWS Anchorage, AK

380 
FZAK51 PAFC 071851 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA...UPDATED
1050 AM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

UPDATED 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-080300-
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1000 MB LOW WILL FORM 60 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAKUTAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE TO 85 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY FRI AFTERNOON AT 1009 MB. THE
LOW WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-080300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
930 AM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE COAST
E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-080300-
RESURRECTION BAY
930 AM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT BY AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-080300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
930 AM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRI...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-080300-
PASSAGE CANAL
1050 AM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRI...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-080300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-080300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-080300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-080300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-080300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 4 FT BY AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT BY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

696 
FZAK51 PAFC 072301
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-081500-
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1000 MB LOW NEAR YAKUTAT WILL MOVE BE A 1006 MB LOW OVER THE LOWER
COOK INLET FRI AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN TO 1014 MB 100 NM SE OF SAND
POINT SAT AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD IN
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST BEGINNING FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-081500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...GUSTS TO
35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-081500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-081500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-081500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-081500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-081500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-081500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-081500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-081500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

216 
FZAK51 PAFC 081150
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-090300-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL MOVE INTO
BRISTOL BAY AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE GULF ON SAT. A PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO 500 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 993 MB SUN MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-090300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-090300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING BY LATE MORNING THEN BECOMING S 15
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-090300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-090300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. WIND
DIMINISHING BY LATE MORNING THEN BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-090300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-090300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-090300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-090300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-090300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT THU JUN 7 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MAINLAND. OVER THE
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING EASTWARD
TOWARD BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A LOW...WEAKENING
TYPHOON MAWAR...MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND...WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS WELL.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 3 TO 4
DAYS. THE NAM HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS...BUT THEN BECOMES AN OUTLIER AGAIN. THE GFS WAS THE MODEL OF
CHOICE FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND BERING SEA...WHILE THE NAM WAS
USED FOR THE SHORT TERM IN THE EAST. FOR THE LONG TERM...A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED AS THEY HAVE BOTH BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR MANY
LOCATIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AK. OTHER THAN A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER
THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AND SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE NEXT EASTERLY WAVE WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AGAIN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RANGE.

SOUTHWEST/BERING/ALEUTIANS...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EASTERLY WAVE THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AK MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE.

AS FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE MAIN CONCERN IS CLOUDS AND
FOG UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FOG WILL BE OVER THE BERING SEA...HOWEVER THERE COULD
BE SOME OVER LAND AT TIMES AS WELL...ESPECIALLY LATE NIGHTS AND EARLY
MORNINGS. THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON MAWAR WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AK BRINGING
ALTERNATING PERIODS OF CLOUDY/RAINY AND SUNNY/WARM CONDITIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE